🌊 ETF Washup

Hi everyone, welcome to our Monday Rapid Fire ETF. What’s the washout? Well, the event turned out to be a little bit of a fizzle. You can look at that as a positive and a negative. We didn’t have the gold candle, but we also haven’t had a significant nuke to the downside. That being said, however, I am of the expectation now that we haven’t moved up and we see the GBTC sell off.

So investors are leaving GBTC to move to something like Bitcoin. BlackRock and Fidelity, all those ETFs with much lower fees. We see that Bitcoin likely actually comes back down and tests these lows. So the 40, 000 region, that’s, that’s the base case here just for a really nice, healthy correction before we move high.

And that’s probably likely before the halving. Also we’ve got Ethereum starting to move towards its ETF, which we do see getting a lot more flows over the next few months. Just on the ETFs as well, there’s this great ETF tracker by BlockWorks. They have all the different tickets here, GBTC you can see where it was BlackRock there, iBit,  assets under management.

That’s the most important one. You know, there’s lots of volume figures being thrown out, but what we really want to focus on is assets under management, the GBTC, a lot of Grayscale assets are moving over to these because they’re lower fees. You can see the Grayscale fees, but head and shoulders above all the others.

But just broadly. For this market to really throw back to the upside, we’re going to need to see that slow grind, that buying power really, really kicks in. And there was this great tweet we had from Invest Answers that BlackRock took off 11, 500 BTC. Out of the system in, you know, two days, that’s just on one ETF.

So once this GBTC selling subsides, this supply shock is building and it’s going to be pretty pretty shocking to the upside, I think after the halving, especially when the issuance falls from where it is now, you know, in half. So this is a slow grind, this is going to build, this is going to get better, but right now we’re just going to have to, you know, deal with this little correction and this dip.

I don’t think it’s going to be too severe but we’re going to see that, that upwards thrust, I think on the back end of the year. Now let’s just into Bitcoin here again just highlight guys that 38, just seems like a magnet a little bit at the moment. And if it loses this level here, you know, 42, 000, 40, 500, I think that’s absolutely on the cards now on the flip side, if it rolls back up, you really want to see it reclaim these kinds of levels above these moving averages and the breakdown areas from there as well.

Well, I think 44, 000 is a good area to start looking for topside again and for, you know, full confirmation. It’s above 36 46, 000. But right now things are just pointing a little bit lower. Although we could be seeing the first stage, especially on the four hour of a strong bull divergence and a bit of a bear trap here, trapping bears wanting to short this lower.

We could have that spring up as well. So not scanning anywhere right now, it’s really hard to make a directional play on something like Bitcoin and altcoins are really unsure at the moment, dominance is breaking down, which is great to see and Bitcoin is just moving lower as well. So Ethereum, we think Ethereum is the trade right now because it’s going into its ETF  in May and that looks 50, 50, whether it gets approved or not, but it doesn’t matter, traders are going to pre-position just like Bitcoin.

What traders did with Bitcoin and investors did in  2023 all year positioning for the ETF. So I would fully expect there to be a bit of a flip of capital. FBDC looks really, really strong on the charts right now. And right now, Ethereum on the weekly chart looks pretty phenomenal to move to that 3200,  if not a little bit higher.

So that’s the current market analysis. Hope you have a great day, guys. Bye.