UGLY ALTCOINS. The GOLD chart gives us hope 🧐

 Hi everyone, welcome to today’s rapid fire looking to get started straight away. Things are looking a little bit on edge, I must say we’re still not seeing a decisive move to the upside or the downside, although I think the downside is becoming a little bit more likely the, the lower we creep, but in totality, this is just a big old shop solidation that we just have to wear through.

The macro, rather, is really uncertain at the moment. There may be some positivity over the next, you know, few weeks, maybe a month.  Ukraine, Russian war and I think markets will like that. Really it just seems like Bitcoin is just quite heavy and it needs to, you know, maybe have another release towards the lower 90 thousands.

Currently I’ll just move up to the, the weekly.  Now, as long as Bitcoin is closing above this blue line here, which is the 10 weekly EMA, which we did again, which is great. So two candles straight into that support level, like we did over here, bang, bang, bang, before we had a nice little reversal back to above 100k.

As long as we’re closing there I’m, I’m okay with how things are operating. But until then we are just range bound in this very clear region. So it’s about up to one. Let’s say 104 down to 92, 000. We’re still stuck in that region. Any closes beneath 95, I start to get a little bit concerned and any serious closes beneath 92, then I think we’re coming down to this the very least 90, 000 and then this potential area around 84, 000.

Now, while Bitcoin investors will be like, that is nothing, you know, these, these kinds of moves are. Actually quite small for Bitcoin volatility standards. But if that happens, then what do you think is going to happen with the altcoin? So that’s where we just have to be very focused especially around strategy.

Bitcoin first, Bitcoin heavy approach is just the gold standard right now of how to approach this market. And unfortunately it’s not like we’ve seen previous cycles where you can throw darts at a dartboard  and make a ton of money. Right now you almost have to have. One investor had on and one trader had on if you’re looking to seek that outperformance from the altcoin market.

There are a few charts that look really good but most of them look really bad. So if you are looking to create outperformance or set yourself up for a longer term position of strike, I’m going to call it like that in the mid to longer term, we really need to have a solid understanding of the charts and where strength is coming in.

Where it’s not, when to get interested, when to get aggressive and when to, you know, chop back into Bitcoin. So that’s where we sit here with Bitcoin guys. I’ll just go to the daily, give you a little bit more nuance and then I’ll just move into a couple of charts here.  So, look, these candles are just super indecisive.

You see these long wicks. either end just horrible price action. It’s just chop, just chop, chop, chop, chop. The one thing I will say though, over a longer period of time, if this continues where we just chop sideways while the RSI is grinding and resetting, that’s a hidden bullish diversion. So that’s really positive anything above a 100, 000.

I think that’s the sweet spot we get above there. Then we can start talking about 104 and higher. But right now We’re just in no man’s land. It looks like we’re probably heading back towards 93, 92 and a half thousand. That seems probably more obvious to me, but once this flips, I’ll flip my, my bias pretty quickly.

And I think old coins, once it gets into those regions, they’re going to be,  Yeah, interesting again, but we can let the charts tell us you know, where they’re at. There’s also a reasonable Argument to be made that there is a strong bearish divergence on the Bitcoin dominance chart Which would indicate that altcoins should get some love or at least some relief  So that’s in the back of my mind.

Let me go through some of the charts I’m watching now. So the most obvious play right now is the first ETF likely off the rank and that is Litecoin. If we have a look here, Litecoin Tether,  so USD is very, very close to breaking out of this You can see very clearly there that I’ve just got it overlaid over the, the tops of the peaks there.

It’s tried. It’s not quite there yet. And just with my text here. So I did a much larger session for the masterminds where I went into about three different charts, looked at the Bitcoin pairs. I dived in to a couple of opportunities. I’m saying when you really want to. So I’m going to cover one that you need to be paying attention to and one you need to avoid today.

Kind of like a little altcoin bible, I think it’s a useful format to run with. But for me, you’ve got to wait for the breakout, then you’ve got to wait for the horizontal break as well. As you see there, the flip. That’s when you get a bit more data, you’re paying a little bit more of a premium, but for more confidence in the move.

If I go to Litecoin here, though Bitcoin, what I’m seeing here is this is the weekly downtrend. There’s a big line running straight through and a diagonal.  That it’s actually breached. So it seems a little bit more advanced on the USD chart. Sorry, the Bitcoin chart than it is on the USD. So what I’m really interested in watching here is, is the Bitcoin leading the USD?

Normally it’s the other way around. If the Bitcoin is leading the USD chart, I’m wondering whether this is a much more sustainable move, and that Bitcoin is being swapped quite aggressively into Litecoin to capture this, you know, potential ETF breakout, but everything here looks pretty good in terms of the bounce from the RSI on the 50.

It’s moving higher, broken the downtrend. But what we want to see for kind of that serious confirmation is this horizontal here, in my view, flipped as support. Now you could pull the horizontal higher. Yes, but you’re paying more of a premium for more information. And that’s essentially how I’m looking at it.

So Litecoin, very, very interesting to see there. Now a chart that I’m a little bit concerned about here, if it doesn’t reverse soon.  Solana. You can see my squiggles there that I’ve done for the masterminds. So this candle close here, this is a, this is kind of what I’m anticipating Bitcoin to do is that it’s breaking down and it’s heading towards the lower structural support.

So what I don’t like about Solana here, it’s below 50 on the RSI. So it tells me that it’s in a weakened state. It’s starting to lose a bit of support. It’s breaking down from this diagonal. It just is bleeding out. It looks like it’s hunting for this 200 beneath. We have to see what the interaction is like when we get there, but just broadly, I think down here would make a lot of sense.

A lot of cascading liquidation to start to happen beneath this 200 and I can see us moving towards, you know, one 65, one 60 over the next, you know, weeks and months that is unless sold us. You know, something like this gets back above all these weeks in here, flips that as support and then off to the races.

And just quickly on Solana,  I just don’t like the USD chart because as well, the weakness on the Bitcoin chart, you can see how aggressive this range is, or at least.  The range is very obvious, so it goes way back to the start of 2024, so it’s a multi year range. In fact, it goes a bit further back to 2023.

But it’s just chopping in this range, and everyone’s getting cut up. You know, but buying the bottom of the range has been very profitable, and then selling towards the top of the range, again, very profitable.  That said, if we get a decisive break to the upside or the downside, and I’ve sort of got here what I wanted Solana to do.

You know, for a while now, and that is to break this horizontal here, flip that in support, climb above the 200, flip that, flip the next level, and then it’s breaking out, or at least it’s at the top of the range when you start to take some profits. Where it is right now, it’s a little bit iffy. You can see very clearly here there’s a head and shoulders here, so left shoulder, head, right shoulder building, and this to me looks like it’s weakening and wants to break this.

If this, if this whole thing breaks it’s going to be aggressive and it’s going to be a large drawn out move to correct and then maybe come back at some point later, but I think it can very easily do a,  you know, 23 percent drop here in line with probably the USD chart, which could bring down to 163.

So that’s what I’m looking at there. I’m a little bit concerned of this. You know, hitting the support again and again and again, I think it’s about to break. That’s just my sense. I’d be very happy if this reversed, but I think Sol’s in a bit of trouble here. Another chart I think looks really nice is XRP.

So it’s had this really beautiful bowl shaped recovery. It’s trying to create sort of the handle of this cup that can break up above here. I mean, here’s probably a good spot to potentially take on a bit of risk if you’re thinking that this is going to move higher because you’ve got a very clear.

Sort of area you can manage risk underneath these moving averages. It does look like the RSI is above 50. Could absolutely pull back a little bit to the 50 and come into these moving averages as well. So you can kind of maybe take a bit of risk, buy a little bit in the moving averages and then manage below, but lower your cost basis if you’re in a sort of a short to midterm trade.

But that level is key. So the, I would say just 3 even for XRP gets above all this sort of chop here. You’re back into this range and then it’s moving higher. So getting closer, no need to rush anything. These kind of things you can just be very patient with,  and the BTC XRP chart looks a little bit better, a little bit more advanced.

So,  they’re the type of charts that are showing some strength, and I’m going to be honest here, a lot of the smaller crap, like the mean coins and all that, they all look rubbish. There’s no real liquidity, there’s no real strength there driving them higher, they’re just sort of hanging on and grinding lower highs over time.

Where there is strength, it’s actually in the larger caps. So, the big utilities you know, sort of the quality quote, unquote so that’s where I’m looking and that’s where I’m seeing strength and just go with what the market’s telling you. Now, I wanted to end on this chart just to give everyone a bit of a hopium induction.

So, this is gold and bitcoin paired to one another. Now, a dynamic that I’ve been watching over time is bitcoin, sorry, gold tends to lead bitcoin’s runs by about, you know, maximum of three months, but anywhere between, let’s say, one and three months. But I could change, but it’s just an interesting thing where they kind of take turns in running now.

Gold here.  When it tops out, it finds a local top as it did here. So just pretend you didn’t know any of the price action On the right hand side of this circle, you can see it tops out chops around a little bit, and then does about a 10% move down at that same time scale. Let’s try and line it up. The same time scale.

You can see the line on the bottom chart. Bitcoin bottomed and ramped went up about 66%. So when gold corrects after a big move, Bitcoin runs, and then when Bitcoin corrects, just chop sideways. Gold runs, and Bitcoin could have a correction too and gold runs. I don’t see a problem with that, but you just see how aggressive this move up is from gold.

Yeah, exactly. While Bitcoin’s just been grinding lower and lower and lower, gold might be topping out here. This is a very aggressive upwards climb.  Gold can start to drop lower. It could be Bitcoin’s turn again to just ramp. So these things  don’t replicate exactly, but they can rhyme. So it’s something I’m paying attention to.

I’m very keen on the gold Bitcoin, I guess you could say correlation, but sort of love relationship or the symbiotic relationship when gold loves to run. Bitcoin tends to run on the same fundamental reasons gold does, but they kind of run at different points in time. There’s different I’ll say different buyers, but there’s larger capital at play.

There’s different markets at play, but generally the, the move is up and to the right for both and they follow the same kind of magnet.  All right, guys, hope you have a wonderful day. We’ll catch you again soon. If you’re interested in the I guess the, the full version of these episodes, I’ll I do these Monday Market Updates for the Mastermind group and they’re quite in depth.

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So have a great day guys. Catch you again soon. Bye.