The 200 DMA stands in the way of a Bull Market

Hi everyone, welcome to today’s Monday Rapid Fire. Let’s get straight in because the markets are moving. I want to get to the Bitcoin chart as soon as possible. Let’s just have a quick look at some of the larger news items today. So, VP Harris has finally said something about crypto and AI, which is fantastic.

Still a little bit light on substance, but there really hasn’t been much substance at all when it comes to crypto, but the statement alone helps us  confirm the thesis that this administration will be just like Biden’s administration, where we’ve got the, the Ethereum ETF, book Warren and Co. aside that just, it seems like crypto is eating the U.

S. government from the inside out, more lobbyists more politicians that are crypto friendly. So if they just maintain the status quo another four years,  look, if, if she wins it’s not gonna kill crypto at all. In fact, whoever wins it means rate cuts, it means more liquidity, more debt. Bitcoin and crypto are gonna absolutely love that.

So I wanted to bring this to your attention and finally a little bit of good news but I’m a big believer in you know, actions over words, and still haven’t seen any actions. His vice president currently, she can do a lot from her position right now, and it’s done nothing. So remember, politicians say a lot of things, but the proof is in the pudding.

All right, let’s move on over to Bitcoin. Yeah, it looks really, really close, guys. We’re We’re going to punch to the top of this range and really feel out that kind of region and look, hopefully launch us into the bull market we want to see historically, specifically from around this point. So  I’m monitoring it as well on that cycle map that I put together for the masterminds.

And yeah, we’re tracking almost barely the 4 year cycle, it’s absolutely wild. Now, let’s just go to the weekly first, I wanted to show you this. This close above the 21 is big for me. I think the bigger you know, shorter to mid term indicator is though the nearing close above the 200 day moving average.

So Again, big bold candle up here, but what we want to create above the 200 day moving average, and I’ll show you where that is in a sec, is just a higher high above this previous sort of block here. We’ve created our first higher low situation, higher low structure through here and now I want to see this higher high begin to form where we can just move into this, this top site.

Which would be fantastic. Now, it, we probably will stay up there for a little bit and contend with that 70, 000 region once again. But there will be a, a rather large significant disbelief in the market around that area. So I think we will have the fuel to continue to move higher. But once we get into these overhead regions, supply is going to come in and they’re going to try and sell on top of your heads.

But you know, I think this last support we had, One, two, three, four, five. This would be the sixth. If we can, you know, crack this, create this sort of shorter term higher high, that would be enormous. But we really want to get above, you know, that 70, 000. We get above 70, 000, you know, we’re off to the moon.

We’re in the new bull, bull phase. You know, old coins are already kind of showing us there’s a new energy, new buoyancy in the market after the rate cuts. But we really want to see it objectively shown as well in the technicals. Because the technical will tell us. Kind of what’s going on behind the scenes.

But it does look like the strong Bull Divergence is playing out through here, and that should launch us to the top of the range, which would be absolutely amazing. You can see it is red to your daily moving average. We are just smacking into it again and again. There is obviously room for us to pull back to maybe 62, 000 and whatnot.

We did already try that twice through these two wicks but it doesn’t mean we can’t, you know, come through here, get a big wick, reject it, then come down, fake everyone out again. You know, it’s crypto. But we want to see some conclusive closes above that region, Guys, I think  this might be, this might be time, this might be time that we’ll have to wait.

Otherwise, if we get rejected here, it’s just another lower high and we’re coming down into this region again, so I wanted to share that. Nice uptick in SBTC actually here starting to look better. Again, I’m not really interested in SVTC until we see conclusive and constructive higher, higher, higher, low  movements there. 

I’ll get into some other charts in a sec, but I wanted to just share the absolute runner of this point in the cycle. And I want to be clear, momentum begets momentum, strength begets strength. When you see relative strength, and it’s super, super strong, you just have to pay attention to it, because others are.

It means so much in this market. So SUI, TBL is going off the chain. Someone knows something. I think  validators are loading up absolutely for whatever’s coming. But the chart here tells you everything you want to know on the weekly. This is enormous. This is a huge move. So massive token unlock and now essentially no more apart from a staggered release over the next 10 years.

But this is huge. This is momentum. This is strength. This is what you want to see.  And it’s beating not only USD, it’s beating Bitcoin. So it’s got the trifecta and that’s why it’s so important because you can say it beating USD. But maybe, you know, it’s not really performing too well against Bitcoin. Well, oh boy, it really is as well.

And I’ll show you that in a sec. But this year, massive weekly close. I can’t really see this not making a new all time high, you know, over the next few weeks if everything goes you know, the same way. I do have a bit of a squiggle here, a bit of sideways movement, which I’d love to see a consolidation in this volume pocket for further move, but we could just keep blitzing up, that’s fine.

Still got a lot of room, a lot of the momentum indicators and RSIs. But again, we really, and I’ve said this with masterminds today as well, I go too much depth here. But we need to have a  an evolving approach to how we view the RSI. When the RSI is in these top regions it’s not even here yet, but if we go, and this is against Bitcoin, you can see just how bullish this looks, broken it down to a number, but if we we need to start to think when the RSI is in these upward regions, like Sui is now,  all this means is, Bulls are in control.

The buyers are really, really strong. That is what you want to see in an uptrending bull market. You want to see strength. That’s what attracts you to these cryptos. Attracts you to these prices. Meandering lowers, below 50. Hasn’t had a breakout yet. So why do you want to be in it if it’s not breaking Bitcoin? 

Unless it’s a longer term strategy period investment thesis, obviously that’s fine. But if you are sort of in a short midterm mindset and you’re looking, well how can I capture outside returns?  Looking at something like Sui, I’m not saying go all in now because it’s going to be, you know, it’s going to be some pullbacks along the way.

I’m just framing it like this, that when the RSI is in these levels that is a good sign. If this is moving up higher and doing the staircase where it has a runner, has the consolidation, you know, pullback, and then the next explosion higher, what you want to RSI is us going up to 82, 90, and then having a pullback to the 70 on the RSI, and then bounce back into those high areas.

The same with price, finding that strength, finding the dip buys, and moving higher. You just, Seeing, you know, in these over, overbought points and thinking, Oh, this is where I need to sell my entire stack. That’s not the right mindset to have in a bull market. I can tell you that from experience. You, you kind of, the recency bias of the bear market, you see in these overbought areas and you go, I’m going to need to sell everything.

While that might be the right move in the short term, you might see a pullback of maybe 10, you know, 15%. All that matters at that point is making sure you’re buying those dips. If you’re not, then you’re essentially just selling your position, taking risks off of that, that’s fine. But you might be missing a much larger move, so it’s important not to be reactionary, and then you might be chasing it after that point.

Again, you’ve got to factor in a lot of things, I just wanted to bring that to your attention. But yeah, beating Bitcoin, you know, likely pull back on the cards, but reloading for a short amount of time and probably going higher. Because as this ball goes on, you want to be very, you want to be paying attention to what he’s running really, really hard.

That, that aggressiveness, that momentum, that liquidity, it’s coming for a reason. It’s going somewhere, because someone knows something. And you want to pay attention to those early runners, because they’ll likely run middle, but back end as well. Okay others I just wanted to show you was ETH.

Just looks phenomenal, and I think the importance of just going back to basics. Looking at resistance support, finding you higher highs, higher lows. That is it, that is it. And it’s how I’ve just been looking at the markets of late, and it has just been beautiful. Because you’re, you’re being patient, you’re waiting for the market to come to you.

And ETH here, yeah, made this inverse head and shoulders. But what I wanted to see was a break above this prior resistance level. As soon as it closed, with volume above it,  I mean, happy days. You know, and it’s creating this higher, higher, higher low structure of a new uptrend. So it’s probably going to run into 200 here, you have a pullback here to 150, 140.

And then kick off to the races, so. Closing above this level is so consequential. Resistance flip now support.  Confirmation of a new uptrend.  It’s just a real thing of beauty to see, and of course it’s beating Bitcoin. So you can kind of use all these charts to your advantage and think about it in those terms.

There’s lots of other charts that I’m watching. Solana, Dogecoin, AVAX breaking out against Bitcoin now as well. So a lot of these charts have got so much downtrend bearishness for so long. You’re paying attention. Some of them are providing incredible entries and great weekly closes out of seriously long term downtrends.

So I’m paying attention guys because this might be the turn of the tide. So have a great day. We’ll catch you again next time. Bye bye.