Sitting at the CROSSROAD. Are you ready?

 Hi Masterminds, I hope you’re having a wonderful day. Apologies for the tardiness of this episode and for being a little bit out of the groups this morning. I haven’t been well and the little man has been very sick as well. It seems like a revolving door of sickness, sickness and yeah, and no sleep.

But yeah, we persevere, we get through and the markets are at a crossroads. In fact, I had it here, the line I was going to use on this, this session was we’re sitting at a crossroads and I think right now we are seeing the stock market now begin to plunge and really start to price in that US dollar wrecking ball, the recession, those yields going up, you know, this is not, this economy is not healthy and eventually it was going to hit the fan and whether Bitcoin was going to be at We’re bringing it back to crypto.

It was going to 30, 000, 40, 000, 50, 000. I think we expected you know, to have that pulse to 40, 000 and 50, 000 while we could see something at the year, I think, and I put it in the newsletter, my, my view now is… For that to happen, we really need to see a catalyst either that ETF to just throw us higher in a, in a bit of a pump that should get sold into, or we see this full thing play out in the short term.

We see the full you know, crush of the debt. We see the deflationary move. So think COVID or com or 2008. You just cannot predict or think how extreme this could be, you know how far down it could go, or maybe it’s just a shallow, another little dip. It could be that as well. We just don’t know, so we’re just speculating, but it does feel like it’s all coming to a bit of a head right now, and we’re heading for, you know, a circuit breaker moment.

So whoever read the newsletter, please read that, because I was pretty bearish on major markets in that trying to explain how things are all being priced in at the moment. And we see these, you know, equities holders that are looking at these. It just looks overvalued. Everything feels overvalued because all the money that’s been put out there, you know, since those low interest rates since 2008 and you know, 2020 as well.

And we’ve just seen free money out there everywhere. And these valuations and these companies are just ridiculously high. Start looking over, we’re seeing bad economic times coming with the recession that you’ll get inversion and whatnot. You look over at those bond yields and they are so attractive that it could go down, you know, the bonds could go down further, bring those yields even higher and make it really interesting as, you know, even more attractive.

But eventually you look over and go, well, that’s yielding, you know, five, two year, one year, whatever, it’s yielding 5%, you know, guaranteed U. S. dollar returns. And say what you like about the U. S. dollar system, it is going to be the last one standing in all of this. So. You’re locking in that guaranteed return for a recessionary period, stocks are going to feel that liquidity drink as a lot of that liquidity moves and sells out of that into dollars and into bonds.

And that’s kind of what we’re seeing at the moment. So again, sitting at a crossroad, Bitcoin is really trying to weather the storm of the stock market. And maybe I’ll start with stocks. So. It’s not a pretty picture at all on the S& P 500. So we’ll just start there and then I’ll, I’ll go to the futures.

Cause I think I had a fractal that’s been priced in. So what’s really interesting is, and if you, you played over a longer term timescale, you have a look at how the structure of the U S stock market with the S& P 500 is actually, you know, is starting to now shape up. It’s giving us a much clearer picture.

This very much looks like that dead cat, a bit of a bear market rally. And now we’re having that, you know, crush on. Afterwards, and you just think what’s happened through all this? Well, it’s been one of the biggest tech bubbles in history. Lots of free money everywhere. You know, AMC those gaming stocks just going absolutely bananas.

Crypto going absolutely bananas as well. Lots of free money out there. But this year is super, super concerned. We’re gapping down. this looks pretty horrendous. And you know, when we start to clear some of these levels, you know, if it gets here, of course, 4190, 4120, you know, you start to, even on the, let’s go to the weekly for a much more higher time scale.

And this is where I think you really have to look. You know, we’re, we’re thinking about this 200, I think. That’s 39. We crack four. There will be absolute pandemonium in markets. And what I think we’re starting to see is that run the dollars. People want to run to the U. S. dollar right now, and the surge is pretty incredible.

Gee, that just dropped a little bit more or unless maybe a I was looking at the daily and not the weekly, but these moving averages, they just look right for the picking on any massive crush to the downside. And you can get a little bit of the doom in your mind but you want to have that, that thinking in your mind that, you know, at any moment, things could actually roll over.

We’ve thought that for a little while, we just didn’t know when, and it was all to do with how high could Bitcoin go in that, that interim path before we had that. that moment where the recession starts to be priced in and everything kind of goes to one. The only thing that’s really been sort of buoying me was the or keeping my spirits up about potentially a Bitcoin rally was gold strength here.

It’s consolidating really nice into this downward channel. And if we don’t see all things correlate to one, and what I mean by that is in a deflationary bust, where the stock market goes down, dollar just runs, everything that’s priced in dollars is obviously going to feel that gut punch to the downside, even if it’s swift and sharp.

In COVID, we saw Oil goes through the roof. What’s oil doing now? It’s, you know, sorry, we saw oil go negative, which created some kind of wicked deflationary bust. And it can be the opposite as well. The dollar surging out of control. But what happened after that is really, really important. If we think that a, you know, a large scale drawdown, a large crash is coming, what happened after COVID?

What was the two main runners and best performing assets out of it? It was gold and it was Bitcoin. Bitcoin was the first move. It kind of bottom first and then it ran. Gold did something similar. So we have to think about in those terms because they are considered the safe haven. And what we could be seeing is the safe haven trade.

Generally what happens is the dollar gets bit up really, really hard. You know, treasuries get beat up really hard, get track, track those really nice yields. And then money starts to look out and say, well, we’re going into a period of uncertainty, economic turmoil. What, what is that, that better asset to, you know, gain a bit more risk and actually capture some more upside.

It’s actually probably the gold and the bitcoins in the world, crazily enough. But again, Bitcoin’s like a caveat because it’s still. It has that tech stocky vibe for a lot of people, but we have to remember the correlation that Bitcoin’s had most of this year to gold. And with the Harbin coming up, ETF, it’s going to be held up a little bit.

So we’ve got to be just careful thinking, you know, we’re going to 21 or, you know, 20 or even the teens. I think we just have to be very careful with that. Because I think there’s a lot of bids lower that are looking to buy cheap Bitcoin. And, and like, and the CCR team, we’re all focused on, you know, sub 25 you know, 24, 5, 23, whatever, 22.

I think a lot of people are thinking the same thing. So there’s massive amounts of bids down there, lots of liquidity, very interested in that area. So yeah, that’s kind of what we’re thinking. I wanted to show you the, the futures for stocks, because I overlaid a fractal, I believe, of 2008. And this doesn’t follow it perfectly, but…

I just wanted to show you kind of how 2008 rolled. Maybe I’ll just move that up here so you can see. So 2008, this was that massive stock market crash, the great financial crisis, had multiple sort of, you know, bounces that people in here were thinking, all right, we’re coming back to the highest. You know, up here.

So it’s got that really nice bounce, double bottom sort of situation there. Bounce up, it was actually a dead cat before it had its next low. And then another dead cat thinking, all right, we might be actually starting to go back up for another one. And then no, sold it into muscle and we had the massive drop.

You know, what are we looking at now? Have we had the all time high over here? Bounce, bounce, lower bounce, bounce, bounce, bear market rally. And then we’ve had a breakdown of a rising wedge. And another breakdown of a rising wedge. Does this kind of look a little bit similar to this sort of stuff? Break down of a rising wedge, break down of a rising wedge, and then smash.

We’re going to be very careful here that we’re not seeing the beginnings of another huge move to the downside to 39K. And that is when, look, I think Bitcoin and gold are not going to be divorced from this. It’s just not going to happen. If dollar, if the 110, let’s say let’s look at the dollar chart.

If dollar goes to 110, then we’re going to see a pretty vicious. Or even just leave the surge and go high. I mean, the dollar just looks freaking unreal. But the caveat is, you know, 1, 2, 3, 4, weekly candles green in a row. It’s coming up on range high resistance. So that’s weekly range high resistance back in March 23.

This is where we could start to see the dollar top out. Stochastic, RSI, all starting to move over. And if that’s the case, we should see a bit of a reinflation with all of these assets. However, if the dollar just careers higher. That’s when we could start to see that that gut punch when everything gets smashed.

So all I’m telling you guys is what’s the most probable outcome here. It is really, really obvious to me that the downside is the obvious play. You can try and counter trade it, but I just wouldn’t recommend it when it’s just really obvious. So it’s so, so obvious and you can go, Oh, I want to be contrarian.

And I’m a big fan of being contrarian, but I think you have to play the probabilities here. It is fine just to be patient. And what? So with, let’s say Bitcoin, for example, what’s really interesting here is just how simple in my eyes it is. And you can just make it super, super simple for yourself. A lot of us are obviously very fondly looking forward to these, I’m going to call it generational buy prices before the Bitcoin halving, before an ETF.

And if we have a, let’s say that recessionary crush, if that does happen, well then we’re through the worst of it. But honestly, because once that builds that recessionary impulse to the downside comes, we’re going to see likely a pivot. We’re going to see a rate cutting. We’re going to see more liquidity income to market to try and incentivize that growth and just generally a different liquidity regime.

It’s not going to be that hard tightening that we’ve seen, especially inflation sticks around and whatnot. We’re through the worst of it after that point, and gold and Bitcoin should start to lead things out because of the recessionary environment. That’s what I’m really excited about. So I think that could be a really strong move into the halving if we have that recessionary catalyst beforehand.

So that’s just the big picture, but simply on the technicals. You know, this just looks like it wants to break down. It just doesn’t look like it has any strength whatsoever. Each impulse up, especially into that the weekly 20 weekly 10 EMA, you know, massive week down. This is really, really obvious in terms of, in fact, I’ve got cut risk here at 25, I would be starting to look at, you know, 25.

I’d be looking at the 26, 000 level, because I think if we lose 26, 000, the market’s going to, we’re going to go to the 25. I think that that would probably be the first thing. And then that’s where liquidity will sit at that really important low down that 25, 000. And then you’re going to have, 24, 900, 24, 800 is the real guidepost.

If we smash into that and we just bounce hard out of it, there’s a lot of liquidity, that’s great. And then if we come back down, oh, the thing’s, so that’s how I would probably play it. We really want to see you know, another real strong wick into that area, see how it bounces out. Generally, we’ll come back down again and retest that liquidity in that area.

If it’s strong again, that’s probably going to be a reasonable local bottom, and then it bounces out. But the great and simple thing is here, you can just cut risk either, you know, just below 26, 000, or you can cut risk, you know, just below 25, 000, and then play it from there. You don’t have to worry about, you know, these little small percentages in between.

This is a big picture investment game, and we’re haggling over tiny percentages in a, in a big scheme of things. Whereas it’s so much safer to wait for key consequential level to break, tell you that the market wants to go lower, that’s fine, remove, sit out of the market, and then re enter. Now it is absolutely fine as well to have a small percentage of your portfolio still imply even if it breaks that level, but you sell at least something.

Gives you some play doh. Play it, I like that to buy lower and, and capture, you know, those generational buyers. I think COVID, when we went from 10, 000, we, we had a haircut of 60%. We went down to 3, 000 or 2, 800, whatever US dollars. You know, we’re just like, whoa, throw everything at it. When everyone was just like, holy crap, it’s going to zero.

That’s the kind of panic and fear we want to see. And if the stock market continues to get smashed I can’t see anything holding up. I really can’t. Too well. But it might. So you can, you can have that as well. And I think that counter, counter trades absolutely on the table, but I’d say be measured with it.

You know, really look at the 27, 800. If we start to crack through, this is the week, let’s go to the data. We crack through the 20 on the weekly and then on the daily, we’ve got the 200 day moving average here. So that red line, and I’ve been really big on it. You just 27, 800. Be focused on that. That’s where the 200 week moving is as well.

We start cracking those levels. It shows you that, okay. Someone’s bidding hard here and it’s being looked upon as something really interesting that people are wanting to buy. In this time of uncertainty. So that’s when you get really hard long or when you re enter aggressively and then manage risk just beneath and just manage it as it goes, but right now, it’s in no man’s land.

So don’t do anything too crazy. And this is a, again, it’s an uncertain time, but it can be really. Simple if you outlay it like this and go from there. So I guess if this might be just a shorter session, but I’ve just kind of shown you the charts that I’m really focused on. You mentioned a lot about yields in the week.

I think a lot of the damage is starting to be done by yields. This is causing a tightening. For the Fed already, and this looks like it just wants to explode up. So if the dollar keeps going up, yields keep going up, we’re going to see something pretty crazy, which would be great. So because I want to see some volatility.

I want this thing to, you know, hard reset, give us that signal that we can go really aggressive in the market again. And that’s when those generational opportunities present themselves that I come around often. I might come around every four years or every great reset, great crash. So we just want to be prepared.

We don’t want to be, you know, all in, all out sort of situation, but want to be across what could happen. So, yeah, guys, I think those are the charts to watch. The DXY, we’ll watch the stock market as well. And yeah, Bitcoin broadly is going to tell you a lot about the liquidity situation, gold, from what yields as well.

But yeah, as long as the dollar’s going up and yields are going up, you know, Bitcoin and all that sequence of events. We kind of want something to really break, like a circuit breaker moment, where it all, you know, feels that, that hit of liquidity. And then it shakes things, shakes things, might make the Fed come in and do something, or it gives the market a bit more certainty about what’s going on.

So. Right now, I think everyone’s just kind of on their edge of their seat. And that’s, that’s what we’re waiting for. Something, something big to, to occur. All right, guys. I hope you’ve enjoyed this episode. Have a great day. You’re rest up, but yeah, exciting times. I have my list set. We have, I’ve got an action plan person at CCI.

I spoke with Steve, I spoke with Joe today. We are all really, really well prepared and I would encourage you. sit down and just think about what’s going on. Are you going to re enter? Do you have you know, capital ready to go on an exchange? What are you going to liquidate if XYZ happens? Are you going to liquidate at all?

Have a plan. Don’t be shocked and look at you know, capitalizing on possibly one of the great buy entries that we’ve seen. So have a great day guys. Catch you later. Bye bye.