PAY ATTENTION when BTC gets boring

Hi everyone, welcome to a Monday Rapid Fire. I hope you all had an amazing weekend. Let’s crack straight in. I think something that is really, really consequential to this market in the short to midterm it’s no surprise, it’s the U. S. election. There are a bunch of other macro things going on at the moment, but I do think this market is going to surge or pull back based on some polling data and how likely it is Trump is going to get into office.

Now why I say that, if you’ve been living under a rock, Trump has a very clear crypto policy and a Bitcoin strategic reserve. It’s the most bullish thing you could probably ever think of leading into a U. S. presidential election. Right now, Kamala Harris essentially has no policies currently, a bit of a blank slate in terms of her crypto outreach and how they’re going to approach that under her administration.

What we can look at though, is a benchmark of what we’re currently seeing, which is the Biden administration. She’s the vice president for that. So at a minimum, I think we’re going to see the exact same approach under her administration, if we do not hear anything else about this.  So that’s my, my base case.

So currently there’s a pretty hostile approach to the space. However, we have seen the first Bitcoin ETF be approved. We’ve also seen the first Ethereum ETF be approved. So it’s very clear that even if you are hostile towards this space, it’s not going anywhere. In fact, it just eats away and just grows and grows and grows.

So ultimately it won’t matter who gets in. However, one side is from an investor standpoint. is more preferred in who we want to see in there from that investment perspective. Because if Trump wins and we see that the polling starts to improve in his favor, I think the market surges again. But currently with Kamala gaining in the polls, and we’re seeing a ton of polls coming out showing that, you know, she’s starting to firm in a lot of these swing states, which are so, so important for where we’re sitting. 

The market has kind of fallen back into a bit of a sideways chop malaise. Again, I’m not saying that’s the core reason. The market is you know, maybe not following through about 60, 000. However, I think if Trump was you know, firmly back at that 70 percent support or whatnot at the prediction markets, we’d be seeing more of a positive drive and price high.

So I just wanted to put that on your radar. We’ve just got a new poll. Again, I think polls, you really need to take them as a grain of salt. You really want to put polls together and kind of find an aggregation of a overall multiple numbers over multiple polls. And we’re seeing Kamala have a massive surge recently, which is fantastic for her.

I’m still not convinced it is a very successful honeymoon period. We have the DNC coming up in about a week, which is the Democratic National Convention. We’re going to hear a lot more about policies and where things sit. At that point we also have debates likely coming up in the next, you know, month or so.

So we’re going to see a lot more about there’s still lots of twists and turns. Again, we did see a new poll come out today, which I think is more accurate. Based on what we’ve seen before the last couple of weeks, which was Trump in, in, neck and neck and in front in a lot of these battleground states, which are leaning more towards the red.

Some polls I’ve been seeing lately, heavily red states are even flipping to Kamala. I’m just not, I’m not, something sounds a bit fishy there. Also a lot more people are in favor of Kamala now in terms of the economy. Again, under Bidenomics, high inflation. You know, a lot of turmoil where Trump had a very strong economy under him.

I’m just not seeing those polls as very accurate right now. That’s just my interpretation. Doesn’t mean it’s true or not. We’re having a look here. Trump is leading by two in Pennsylvania, Nevada by three, North Carolina, four and Arizona one. They’re not very big leads and they’re within the margin of error.

And I would strongly urge you to check out more strategically around the Electoral College and how the votes work. But I’ve seen a lot of prediction analysis done on this election, and if everything holds true right now, if Kamala loses Pennsylvania, she has about a 3 4 percent of winning the election, just in terms of how the electoral map is looking.

But if Trump loses Pennsylvania, then Kamala’s likely going to win. It is such a crucial state. Barring any random state flips leading up to it. So, that’s my broad take. Probably spent longer on this than I really wanted to. I might just quickly look at PolyMarket, which is a crypto based platform.

And it’s gained so much popularity in this election cycle. Because it is 24 7, it’s highly liquid. Versus you know, Predicted and a few others that are being looked at a lot. They’re very illiquid. It takes, you know, it operates in business hours. Slow to get money moving left and right. So this seems a pretty good gauge in my view.

And Trump was about 70 percent Kamala was about 40%.  Now we’re seeing Kamala inch in front. And I think that’s reflective of the polls. It’s reflective of all of the mood out there and Trump making a lot of unforced errors of late. So this was going to be very fascinating to watch, but I think this is fairly accurate, but I think it’s more neck and neck.

And again, it’s just probabilities that they’re going to win. It doesn’t give, I guess, one side you know, guarantee either way or the other, but yeah, I wanted to show you this because it’s something we have to pay attention to. Okay. In terms of the shorter term, midterm drive of the market.

I think, again, if Trump gets more in front, again, we see the market feel a lot warmer to the upside, which I think is gonna happen anyway towards back into the end of the election. But anyway, let’s move on to, on chain. So MVRV, it’s really good on chain metric to show you when Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.

And right now.  I’m seeing that Bitcoin is in a very similar state than where we were back here in 2019 before the bull market moved. Right now just consolidating, hugging that band. Also same on the oscillator as well. We’re coming back to that same  region, that main area. So I’m really liking what I’m seeing in terms of consolidation, building for that next big move.

Really like that. My multiple, this essentially shows you the standard deviations from the 200 day moving average. And I love this cause it’s kind of an on chain mixed with a technical chart.  And right now we’re hugging, I guess the is it the, we’re essentially on, excuse me, the 200 day moving average.

So the blue line there. 0. 08, you know, standard deviations from that 200 day moving average. We haven’t seen any green dots yet. We did through here, but you know, if we were after post halving 2020 we really didn’t see any touches again. So this to me, it looks like she’s building, you know, down at this level, reloading, it looks really, really fantastic.

Stablecoin supply ratio is another one you can dive into as well, but I think this is great in showing you that stablecoins are locked and ready to go. There’s a lot of. Power there’s a lot of fuel the market gives the signal. She’s ready to go. We also have to factor in That we have a lot of bitcoin etfs and ethereum etfs firing Just say an award garden without a lot of the stable coin data coming into it So i’m not sure how that affects it, but I would assume that there’s a bit of a disconnect and a growing maturation of the market you know, moving away from  USD, USDT dominance and Bitcoin dominance.

There’s some skewed data in there, I feel, with these ETFs. We’re getting a lot of inflows. I don’t know if we’re counting a lot of these traditional charts that we’re looking at, but we will pay attention to it. Just on the ETFs as well, I like the inflows that are coming in. There was no mass panic from the boomers and all these funds that acquired Bitcoin.

In fact, they’re adding, there’s been minimal outflows, which is great. Just sort of treading water, but I do expect these to start you know, really hammering away as we get towards the election cycle. So, yep, stablecoin supply ratio, we’re in that underheated, underheated, underheated territory.

Just lost my mind there. Yeah, versus overheated, where we’re at the top of the Bollinger Band. So when we see those red dots, it’s a pretty good time to think that there’s a lot of deployment.  Not really much in reserve and when we’re down into that blue area, like I said, guys, you can see that kind of flip.

What I’m watching here, and I’ll start with a more macro chart than I will with Bitcoin just yet, but I’m watching gold. Gold looks like she wants to break out to a new all time high, and I expect Bitcoin to follow it in some way or another. You know, whether it be punch back above 60, 000 or, you know, follow through with its low and then start to move higher back into the range.

But gold here. It’s sniffing out trouble in the world and I think Bitcoin will do the same and as this market matures, I think Bitcoin becomes more of that  risk on asset excuse me, risk off if I got them confused. When there’s trouble and risk in the environment, I think Bitcoin will, will capture that market versus being so reactionary to equities movements here and there.

So gold definitely one I’m watching. Let’s Bitcoin because I didn’t really like the weekly close is not the end of the world by any means but the weekly close for mine  Didn’t get above that sixty thousand and you know, that’s sixty two four hundred mark. That’s okay I’m expecting some chop around here But there is scope for us to sort of feel out this week a little bit down to the bottom of this wedge If i’m zooming out though I’m thinking that this is just one heck of a giant cup and handle with a pullback and this is a ball flag Emerging that’s kind of my bias here.

I’m expecting up into the right at some point we’re also seeing the Start of a bull divergence emerging. He hasn’t confirmed or anything like that I think for a confirmation you make that higher high but there’s every  every sense to think here that this is the makings of a Reload and then a push back into the power zone much much higher But you see there higher low on the rsi.

Meanwhile price made that lower low, which is a pretty good signal But right now again, the market feels very muted It’s it’s kind of waiting for something and i’m not sure whether it be the DNC, whether it be something in the macro, or we’re just waiting for additional flows, you know, it’s fine. I wouldn’t get too concerned with the overall Bitcoin market unless we started to see significant weakness through that 50 year period.

55, 000 54, 000 level. If that’s the case, then I would expect us to come down to the bottom of this trend line of 52, 000 and maybe another low at about 45, 000 46, 000 and that would be the final low. So, I do expect, though, there’d be a lot of support beneath us down to that 50, 000 region based on those volume flows that we got through and that cluster that came through when we That 50, 000 so pretty confident where we sit, but it’s just going to again, try and  what’s the word shake people out right before the good times.

And that’s what sideways capitulation does. Now, Ethereum here does look like she wants to come back down to that 24, 50 level you know, try and create a more defined daily higher low. That’s good. RSI all looks bottomed out. So yeah, I’m not really too concerned with any of these charts. They all look ready to move when, when the market wants to.

And I, I like to say to the masterminds and just generally when I’ve been in this market for multiple years, multiple cycles, it just like, spidey senses go off. When Bitcoin and the market gets bottomed out, Boring and everyone has apathy it is when you need to pay the most attention because she’s about to make a big move And we’ve already had a big move to the downside.

So i’m just not and 50 000 held so far I’m, not expecting, you know another move. I think that’s a low priority It’s not off the table, but it’s a lower priority for myself. Something i’m watching as well guys is solana strength against Ethereum, you know, it looks like it’s broken out. It’s come back retested the lid We’ll see how this goes if this starts, you know, moving higher and sort of engulfing these candles and you know, she’s off against F again just broadly i’d be looking to have a minimal risk approach Just currently until we get a few more conclusive daily closes and weekly closes above 60 000 but right now not too concerned i’d be having alerts at the lower bound range, you know, 55 54 000 re evaluating And 60, 000 to the upside.

Again, you shouldn’t be day trading this kind of chop. It will tear your hair off tear your face off and it’s just not fun. And it’s emotionally exhausting. I would just highly recommend trying to tune out the short term noise, think where the market’s going, position your portfolio accordingly. 

With you know, a lower risk slant. And if you want to capture the high risk, cause prices are fantastic at the moment, you can just inch your toes a few percentage points into these and build positions. You never should go all in on anything at any given time. So yeah, just have that practical approach, which helps you manage your risk in your emotional situation as well.

So guys, hope you have a wonderful day. Any questions or comments, leave them below. And if I see them, I’ll try and get to them. So have a wonderful day. See ya.