Heading for a Circuit Breaker moment

Hi everyone, the trade war is here. Trump slaps the tariffs on Mexico and Canada and we are seeing global economic turmoil and that is to be expected now that they’re here because what Trump is trying to do and we can go into the absolute weeds and I love to do it but I’m not going to do it here on this session I have for the masterminds is that Trump is looking to completely reorganize, redesign the global economic order and putting the United States as the epicenter and is going to suck.

All that liquidity out of the rest of the world to bootstrap the U. S. industry. Energy, production, manufacturing, all that. Yeah, short term pain is going to be felt, but I think it’s going to be huge for the United States. And I, I think is, this could be a very interesting reset moment. Whether we see a massive reset in stocks that, you know, maybe brings about a new wave of, you know, QE and all that.

Again, it’s, it’s going to be playing out. over a longer period of time. I’m not going to talk endlessly about tariffs here, but suffice to say, what is going on makes the charts completely useless right now. This is like a everything goes to one kind of moment. Risk assets are going to feel it immediately.

And Bitcoin being that thing that trades 24 7 and before US markets open, that’s going to see the immediate hit of all this. And Bitcoin is going to front run whatever’s going on here. So. Right now it’s kind of like, vroom, elevated down. I’m expecting this to maybe go low 90s to maybe mid to high 80s.

I don’t care. I’ve got this moment as an opportunity. I’ve got dry powder. I’m also shorting old coins. I mean, it’s yeah, it’s a pretty wild moment. But all that aside, it’s fear, max pain. This type of moment where we just need to just not panic. Sit back, assess what’s going on, and have your ideas about what is best for you in this situation.

It shouldn’t be a moment where you just panic sell everything. That is just stupid and silly. You know, the moment to, you know, realign your portfolio was probably higher, and if you’re going to do that, you know, wait for at least some kind of relief bounce. But we really want to be dialed in to the whole, you know, Bitcoin is the strongest.

Altcoins essentially look like they’re moving towards, you know, some of them look like they’re in a bear market. So again, it’s important to be defensive and pick your targets when possible. For example, the only thing I’m doing right now is looking to buy Bitcoin. I’m shorting crappy looking altcoins and I’ve got orders set on SUI BTC going down, you know, quite low because, and it’s not my full allocation, it’s just a percentage of my capital allocation.

I’m buying SUI. I’m keeping focus super, super narrow. Only allocating, you know, 30 percent of my dynamic portfolio towards allocating, you know, the crypto that I want, my high conviction altcoins. That’s it. We gotta let this play out. No one knows what’s gonna happen. Again, we just have to follow our basic principles.

Manage risk. Be defensive where possible. That’s, that’s my feeling. You might have a completely different strategy. You might go, I see a massive dip. I’m gonna take on that immediate risk. Capture all this potential value. I’ve just I have a completely different approach to these markets these days, and it’s, you know, catching falling knives is a, is not a great strategy.

You know, it can be, it can pay off bigly but I prefer to wait for strength in these altcoins as well as, you know, capture extreme value. I’m not saying don’t do that but that’s my approach. Again, I don’t want to get too much into this because it’s more mastermind conversation but let me just share the charts of where things sit.

Wow, thirty, ninety three thousand. Where are you going? Woohoo! Okay, so we are now starting to dive into these lower zones. And very, very clear on my chart, you know, get really bullish on Bitcoin when it closes above, you see this green line I’ve got here, never closed with any significance above that level on a daily.

So, if that did, if that had happened, then I could see that sort of motion, but no, until then, downside bias. Got the 100 moving average here which was my target, my short term target, about 94, 000, so that makes a ton of sense. Now, I’ve got this box drawn down here because there’s a lot of air that hasn’t really been tagged between 94, 000 and 79, 000.

I would love to see this do something like that and that would be sort of consistent with a big capitulation reset. Now, we’ve seen altcoins just get absolutely slaughtered for a while now, but Bitcoin really hasn’t done that. It’s sort of snazed. You know 1%, 2 percent here, rebounded, you know, done all that.

This is the moment where Bitcoin now does its thing, and we just have to be alert that altcoins are likely. If they’re closing beneath crucial long term support levels, for example, like if I look at let’s go to Stacks here. I wanted to short the Gizzards out of this, I didn’t. I went with HBAR instead.

Oh, excuse me. But if we just zoom out on, say, Stacks here, this is a crucial horizontal level that goes all the way back to 2023. And, you know, it can go even further back. But this was a close, if we just zoom in on stacks. This breakdown, first signal, you know, data close here, rally back into resistance. So, previous support, now turned resistance, and then this huge daily red candle eclipsed all of that.

You know, that’s where you get interested in going, you know, short the market, or you want to get out of a position. Because you know, alright, this is really starting to worry you and your portfolio. It can’t even break the downtrend, it’s losing key support levels, and it’s going lower. So Stacks, you know, looks absolutely tragic right now.

What else here? I was going to show you, There’s not many cryptos that look any good right now, and I think that is just, again, it looks so bad and so violent in the moment. We just have to wait for a daily close, and then, you know, the for the chips to fall as they may and go from there. If we look at Bitcoin on the weekly as well, we have the weekly close.

Today, it does to me look like the weekly wants to reset towards the RSI on the 50, maybe the stoke RSI wants to do the same, and that would line perfectly with all this, but yes, altcoins are in a bit of trouble here, but because they’ve been smashed just so hard recently, the liquidity has It’s broadly come out.

It doesn’t mean it can’t, you know, go down another, you know, 25 percent or whatnot. But something like, you know, Sui, the stronger altcoins, it’s something I’m watching because I still think there is good value here. Oh, wow. HBAR just completely falling off a cliff which is nice for my shorts.

Yeah, so broken the, sort of the, the uptrend there, closed just brutally, and now it’s continuing on its merry way down. Yeah, this looks to me like capitulation, you know, people have just completely lost faith in altcoins and they’re either moving into Bitcoin or they’re moving into USD. Again guys, it’s a bit hard for me to give you any analysis right now until we find a flaw.

Because we need to see where the structural support is. Whereas altcoins are just kind of in free fall right now. The place to be is Bitcoin. And again, I’d be very wary of making wholesale changes to your portfolio during a bloodbath. It’s really not the point. To do it. It’s really a matter of analyzing your portfolio from a very high level and then understanding why you originally bought these assets What is the time frame that you are, you know, looking to hold them for for x y and z reasons?

And comparing against Bitcoin over a longer period of time. If they’re just getting smoky against Bitcoin you know, over a long period of time, and they’re getting smoked against USD over a long period of time, then you might need to make a decision about them on maybe a bounce. Or now, I mean, it’s completely up to you in that sense.

You know, for example, my portfolio is 90 percent Bitcoin. It is hyper dialed in. I’ve only got, you know, a few interests outside of Bitcoin and those charts are really in my mind and in focus. I’ve got alerts programmed all through them, where I see value, where I buy to the upside and the downside.

Apart from that, Bitcoin is the least risky asset here. It is the strongest asset. And looking at where to, you know, if you’re looking to catch falling knives, probably the best place to do that is in Bitcoin. Once you have Bitcoin, then you can start looking at the Bitcoin pairs from there. I think we are in a It is arguable that we are in a completely different market dynamic in 2025 than we’ve seen in previous cycles.

Altcoins just aren’t showing the strength that they used to, and you have to lean into that trend, and it’s on the back of my newsletter that I wrote was it last week or the week before? About Bitcoin pairs. If you are not beating Bitcoin, Over any meaningful significant amount of time, you are just taking a higher risk burden on yourself while not getting exposure to the best performing asset.

It doesn’t make much sense to me. I think we need to be very sober. And not cling to what’s happened previously as much as we all wanted to when we thought this would play out exactly the same and I still think there will be periods of massive altcoin, altcoin outperformance at some point but right now it is clear that again Bitcoin is where the capital and liquidity is going because of, you know, larger macro shifts and altcoins being the hyper risky, you know, sort of speculative asset that they are, aren’t getting the full blown I mean, we haven’t seen a reversal of the QT in the United States.

We’ve seen M2 begin to expand, but we’ve seen, you know, sort of stop start almost like one foot on the accelerator, one foot on the brake. It’s not the, you know, massive stimulus cutting rates left and right. You know, we’ve had a pause on rate cuts. U. S. Treasury yields are going higher. The dollar’s going higher.

That is just, again, there’s so much instability in the world right now and a lot of fear that Altcoins are the first place you’ll see liquidity begin to extract itself from. So just have to keep that in the back of your mind and monitor that because it will hold you in good stead when you’re thinking, all right, where, where do I first deploy into this market?

I want exposure, but where, where am I best to deploy? And then from there, where do I look to strategically look to outperform Bitcoin and US dollars? So guys, I hope you know, that, that will provide you a little bit of insight, a little bit of value. Again, I just wouldn’t panic here. Do not panic. No matter what happens here, just do not panic.

This is the moment to be watchful, to be patient. If you’ve got dry powder on the sidelines, this is a great, you know, spot to you know, inch into the market. Find value where you see it in high conviction assets. This is not a time to collect cryptos or think you’re going to, you know, 10x stuff right off the bat.

It’s not a time to take on leverage or do anything silly like that. Again, this will take time to play out. And I just don’t know if Bitcoin’s found the flaw here yet. So if it hasn’t, then altcoins have definitely not found a flaw. So just keep that in the back of your mind. I think in the next 24 48 hours, we should see some kind of resolution with or at least some more information around the tariffs.

Because Trump’s saying he’s going to meet with Mexico and Canada tomorrow. He’s scared the absolute bejesus out of every nation who, you know, maybe has trade deals with the United States. And he wants concessions. He wants what he wants. And if he doesn’t get what he wants Then these tariffs stay in place.

But again, this is just a fear and pain. The market’s just trying to price in this sort of systemic shock right now. And yeah, we just want to be watchful, careful you know, buying some fear, buying some value, not deploying at all, not going all in at once. You will get more than enough opportunity to buy when you see a bit of strength or potentially lower prices.

So that’s the way I’m thinking about this guys. And yeah, I, I think that we just have to have an open mind about where this can go in terms of Bitcoin, I think 85, 000 is probably the, you know, the sweet spot into this region if we get it because right now this just looks, you know, like it just wants to go lower and we’re losing that 50 on the, well, that’s the three day, let me just go back to the daily yeah, the daily is trying to be held up by the 100 here, which is good but it doesn’t mean that it’s going to hold up.

I think there’s definitely a rebound on the offer, you know, coming soon, but then, What happens after that? U. S. stock markets are just getting hit really hard here and that liquidity or the direction of the markets is directly manifesting itself into Bitcoin. To see the dollar absolutely surging and stocks down a bit lower.

So guys yeah, I hope you’ve watched this. Maybe some of these concepts and this high level talk around macros a bit. You’re like, what the hell is he talking about? But it’s important, it’s what we cover in the Mastermind level and it’s allowed us to stay. Very comfortably more Bitcoin focused and also more defensive and really take opportunities where we see it.

And there, there are many opportunities. It’s very narrow right now. Very, very narrow. And yes, you have to know when to commit and when to pull back. And that’s, that’s my feeling with Bitcoin as kind of your anchor in the middle. Again, versus throwing all your money at all this hyper risky stuff.

Because the catching falling knives is all well and good. That low that you’re buying, you could get a lower low. You could get lower, lower lows on those lows, and then the lowest low comes after those two lows, if you know what I mean. You just do not know where the floor is, and it is very, very risky to go all in all at once on these sort of, you know, falls.

And that might sound a bit counter to, I guess, the, the buy the dip ethos, but it’s how I approach these markets now. I’m just hyper ruthless. I don’t, I do not want to be carrying the bag for some of this stuff that can just, you know, keep. I’m more than happy to wait for confirmation and that means paying a potential premium on the upside, but I’m getting, I’m paying a premium for more information that, that, you know, the market strength is returning.

And I’m maybe, you know, missing out on an a hundred percent gain, but I’m, I’m sort of paying the money for information to try and get a 500 to a thousand percent move afterwards, if that makes sense. Alright guys you know, stay safe, watch everything with ooh, nice, 92, 000, we’re really accelerating now, this is, this is good, because it moves us towards a, you know, a boom sort of nuke capitulation moment, which is always good if we want to see the, sort of the end of this situation.

Alright guys, have a great day, at least try to I’ll be watching this and sort of being very attentive towards it and hopefully I haven’t scared anyone, but sometimes you just have to be very sober about what’s going on, be very calm. Don’t panic, I’ve been through so many of these, it’s not funny.

COVID some of the other ones you know, the rate tightenings, FTX, they all look the same to me. It’s just, they’re, they’re opportunities to buy, and right now the safest space to buy that is Bitcoin. All right guys take it easy, see you soon, bye.