Divergence of Fundamentals vs Price has Never Been Greater!

Hi everyone, welcome to today’s Monday Rapid Fire. I’ve got three things I really want to show you here. I won’t go into too much depth. I’ll be doing that with the buy masterminds a little bit later today in terms of what I’m seeing in the disinflationary aspects of what I’m looking at through yields and the dollar.

And the big picture, I think it is all looking really bright and I did from a point, I think it’s looking bright from about Q2  onwards in terms of the dynamics that are setting up around N2, around the dollar again yields. There are some structural issues and also some fears at the moment around tariffs and we’re seeing a lot of that fear being priced in.

So I wanted to start on that today and looking at the S& P 500 because this is where a lot of that anxiety and fear is being focused on right now. Bitcoin and crypto have obviously felt a lot of that liquidity tightening that has recently been happening in terms of the fear being sucked out of the market.

Crypto liquidity move from in the event that, say, the S& P is rolling over. Probably larger structural fears are being realized around let’s say tariff situation unemployment on the rise. And there’s generally a lot of instability around the world. So this was my point of almost no return in the short term, which was the SP500.

This is just the futures, but you know, a close beneath the 200 day moving average. We haven’t closed beneath the 200 day moving average since way back here in the was it October 2023.  So  if we were to do that here again, then we have to expect further downside and more instability.  This was my chart to watch amongst many other things.

Again, Bitcoin is kind of just leading that liquidity move and whether it’s finished in that move at around 80, 000 we’re not sure, but we’re just watching here this dynamic. I really want to see the S& P 500 close back above the 200 because this does to me look like a pretty, Nice dip to buy, if I’m honest.

I think there’s a lot of fear out there, even now. And I’ll show you in a sec the Crypto Fear and Greed Index because it is it’s really telling.  We’ll go there now. Crypto Fear and Greed Index is actually at COVID level lows. And bear market lows. So we actually ducked down to 15 the other day, I think it was on Tell me, 1st of March, 20, but we did get down to the low of 15 on the 4th of March.

That’s incredibly low. Again, these are going back to bear market lows and COVID lows. You could almost trade this chart or invest in this market just based on this.  chart alone, fear and greed, when everyone is completely running out the door. That is where you want to get really interested in the old saying, you know, you buy the blood in the streets, but you just don’t know when, you know, the blood’s blood leads into a much larger massacre.

So you’ve got to be very careful with that. But about now feels, feels about right. Now we’ve seen capitulation.  Capitulation, but eventually that does exhaust itself into a support level when everyone doesn’t want to buy that had enough and they’ve run for the door.  Crypto itself has seen, you know, a phenomenal sell off.

Bitcoin really has just gone down from 100, you know, ducked down into 70s, but there’s about an 11 percent difference from where we are we’re over this short period of time. So the volatility in Bitcoin is. It’s, it’s much less, it’s much much easier to digest. It’s also the best performing asset out there in the lowest volatility.

So if you’re looking at your portfolio and going, geez, it’s down so much here, you may need an adjustment in strategy. So that’s what we’re looking at here. If anyone is having issues with their portfolio and strategies, we’re looking at ways that we can. You know, really get you involved and help you understand on how to manage risk, survive, and then go on offense when you need to, and go on defense when you need to as well.

So Joe’s session will be around this as well this coming Friday. And we’re also looking to open up some calls with us as well, because this is essentially all we’ve been dealing with in the Mastermind group is, you know, you might be in altcoins, you might feel trapped and held hostage to them.

What next? How do you get out of here? You know mentally that maybe you’ve made a mistake here, but what’s the next step? How do you get out of those positions if you want to, you know, versus just holding and hoping which we can help you with as well.  So I wanted to show you CryptoFurity in Green Index.

The one takeaway I would move from this is opportunity. When this is at these kind of levels, we’re not far away from the low. So keep that in the back of your mind, you know, versus panic selling. Or if you have dry powder, you know, these are the type of environments, the type of areas where you want to get very busy and interested.

Even if we do drop down to 75, 000, 71, 000. When we’re at these levels, we’re not far away. So, you know, you’re never going to pick the perfect low. You’re never going to pick the perfect top. So just look for almost like a shotgun approach based on what data we have at the moment. Now, I’m just going to finish on Bitcoin here because we’ve had a really nice sell off after this, I guess, double top formation at the top here and we’ve had the run back up.

Now, I’ve,  personally guys, I like to keep it really, really simple. This is all I’ve said with the masterminds. It doesn’t matter what’s going on in the macro as such.  All you really need to dial into is the chart. The chart will tell you what is going on. So anything above this level here at 92, 000, let’s say 94, 000 to be safe, if we can flip this type of level up here  into support again, so if we wind our way up and do that, then I think the worst is over and we can start to get bullish again, including on altcoins, because altcoins are a really difficult proposition here, unless you’re willing to take some risk, you know, to get the discount.

You’re taking on a big amount of risk, especially if they’re not outperforming Bitcoin. And when I say outperforming Bitcoin, please do not take that on a,  say, a day to day basis. It really needs to have on the chart when we want a longer term set up where it’s starting to break down trends, it is Flipping resistance into support levels.

We want to get out of the day trader mindset. We want to look at the bigger picture. And right now, I’m not seeing a lot of altcoins in that realm. You know, we’re looking at Sui for ages there. But that’s broken down against Bitcoin. Not interested in that until it starts to reclaim some overheads. Or it goes much lower.

And there are others, I guess, we could look at. I won’t do that today. But we’ll look at Bitcoin here.  So this, again, I’m a little bit interested at this level, to be honest. I’ve got an alert here. Now, there is a thought here that You know, there could be a bit of some market, quote, quote, fuckery, where we drop beneath the 200 wash out a lot of people, like myself included.

I wanted to manage risk under the 200 today. I’m hedging some risk via some other means. But here is not a good spot for the market to be in. It’s closing underneath the 200, it’s closing beneath 82, 000, which is kind of the low of these candles here, or the bodies of those candles here. So this is a really awkward position for the market to be in.

And it’s selling everyone to get out. Which, to me, can be looked on as a bit of a contrarian input, to be honest, because if I’m looking at this objectively, yes it looks bad, yes you probably want to manage risk and just buy when it shows you some strength at the upside.  But that’s what everyone’s thinking.

And you’re also looking down here, and I’m just saying, I’ve got two RSI’s out, but I’m looking at his seeing that the RSI, And price is making a strong bullish divergence. So price here is going lower. It’s a really nice move and the RSI is making a higher low.  If we were to bottom, one of the criteria that I was looking for was a lower low in price and a higher low in the RSI momentum, because it shows that strong bullish divergence.

And that’s what you want to see for a trend reversal. It does not mean it’s going to happen, but it is one of the indicators that it’s going to happen and it needs to confirm. So it really needs to break this downtrend and, you know, start to flip. So it would sort of be something like Oh, that’s terrible.

Let me try that again.  I would have drawn, you know, something like that. I would want to see this break that to sort of follow through with the divergence and then we can see a flippening of the levels above. So that’s what I’m talking about when I see a confirmation of the bearish divergence. I actually want it to, you know, start to reverse.

But right now, there is no doubt, the bears are in charge here and I am very much looking at levels. 75, 000, 76, 000 and a little bit lower. You know, why am I looking at that? Well, if we just pull out a Fibonacci retracement.  We can look at this here,  so low to the high back here, so 0. 5 is where we’re at here on the Fibonacci.

So this is a good level, but there are some levels lower, including just here at the top of these peaks and the breakout of this, you know,  six to eight month consolidation, which is down at about 74, 000. Then we’ve got the 0. And the volume block at 70, 000. So they’re my key areas, guys. Again, don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Just keep it super unemotional. Look at your levels. If it flips 92, 000, we’re bullish again. If we lose 82, we’re bearish. So that’s where we are at the moment. I’d be monitoring this because right now my, my bias is more downside before it resolves. So we could very well have this run back into the 200.

Smash down, reclaim the level and then climb out. So that’s really something I’m paying attention to. I don’t think we get an immediate reverse. I mean, unless this does, which would be happy days, don’t care, but have those key levels in the back of your mind, have the downside strategy and the upside strategy.

You’ll be very well positioned going forward. All right, guys. Hope you have a wonderful day. Thanks for watching. See you again soon. Bye.