BTC rejected at resistance. Base case is still lower

 Okay, team, we simply have to first touch on the Bitcoin ETFs. So the current holdings actually reached 133, 768 Bitcoin currently on the balance sheet of the new nine ETFs. Now, British Hoddle is a Twitter account that you can follow. He made a really good point saying that Grayscale really represents the old money of the space that was chasing the arbitrage trade, you know, the premium and the discount side of things.

Yeah. A lot of them are unwinding that trade. Now, the nine that are here are new money. This is likely a lot of people that are swapping over their superannuations, their IRAs, and all that into Bitcoin. Longer term mindsets, longer term holders. People that wanted to buy Bitcoin for a long time but were waiting for the vehicle.

These are likely people that aren’t going to sell any time soon. Locking it away, you can think of it almost as a liquid supply. Now, this amount of Bitcoin, the total BTC, you can go to Hey Apollo and watch this chart over time. It’s just incredible. But that was garnered within a week, just over you know, seven days of being operational.

That is an incredible amount that’s been hovered off the market. When you think Grayscale was up to, I think that’s 630, 000, around that mark, of Bitcoin under the balance sheet. They’ve shed about a hundred and something. Now, some of it obviously went into these new ETS, but some of it didn’t. But if you think about it, if we forecast out, we’ve got the halving coming.

This next month might be a bit of a down one when we look at the chart as well. And, over the next 6 to 12 months, just imagine the supply shock. If we still see these kinds of figures being hovered up, you know, weekly and monthly. That creates that supply shock we’re always looking for, for those really, really strong bull markets.

Quickly touching on Bitcoin. It’s doing what we thought it might, which was after the breakdown, it was going to come back and retest the underside of support, now flip resistance. And I still suspect this is going to lower prices. And I know with everything I’ve just said, things will look, shaping up to be really bullish, but it’s been overextended for a long time.

You know, 15, it got to at some point. We’re going to have a pullback. I’d love to see us go down to the mid 30, 000s. It does not necessarily mean it has to, but, you know, to get mega bullish again, I want to see it’s at least about 40, 44, 000. 46 would be much more comfortable in my eyes up in these kinds of areas.

But right now, the test is really on the bulbs to re-flip this and then climb higher. Because for now it ran up against the 200 4 hour moving average, also the 20 on the daily, and it’s coming back down. And I think this area just makes a ton of sense. Just a little bit lower and I’ll zoom out. 38, 000, 35, 000.

This kind of region down below before we have that real blast off into the halving, which we’ve got marked there. So it’s not too far away, but historically we tend to have a drawdown into halving. We’ve got miners selling, taking profit off, you know, just unwinding a lot of this larger move as well, some profit takers, but there are a few really positive catalysts just sitting there, including the ETFs that are kind of giving us a bit of a cushion.

So whether we see 32, 000, 30, 000, I think that’s a bit unlikely, but I think 38, 000, 35, 000 is definitely on the cards. Again, that being said, I’m perfectly happy to flip my bias if we see some of these levels above get taken out. So it’s always really important to have an if this then that kind of strategy.

Ethereum, very similar, let me just duck on over there real quick. It’s actually been really disappointing, Ethereum, I’ve got to say. Solana’s taking a lot of the heat out of it, and I know I’ve been saying that in newsletters as well, but Ethereum’s going to have its day.  But again, patience I think is going to be rewarded here, but it is really testing a lot of that patience.

If we just go out into the weekly  and I had this drawing done for the mastermind clients, but this is the likely path I see for Ethereum. It’s broken out of this wedge. It’s you know, wanting, I think it’s going to go to 33, 30, 3, 000, 3, 200 at some point here. But as it has broken out generally likes to come back and fake a few people out and come back and retest.

You’ve got these weakly moving averages all stacked up really nice just down here. Could come back to about 2000 I think, maybe a little bit lower. But if it stabilises here it would be really, really nice to have that explosion sometime soon. And FBTC charts just, you know, It’s completely broken down.

So I think we’re almost approaching another kind of exhaustion event in terms of sentiment on Ethereum. Everyone is annoyed with it, gets, you know, really hated it. And then we have the move where everyone kind of gets shaken out of that. Remember, we’ve got the Ethereum ETF likely coming in sometime in May.

We’ve also got, you know, supply constraints with that as well. So I suspect there might be a bit of a front running into that grayscale. Likely sell off if it does get that conversion in, in May, but also some upgrades floating around as well at the early part of February for a few months. I would not be surprised to see a bit of a pop here, but so far not looking too flash.

All right, guys be prepared, I think, for a bit more of a downward February and then exciting times again, I think, in March. That’s the gut feel. Give you a little bit extra today, but thought I might going into some really interesting times. Also, watch the macro. Lots of stuff happening this Wednesday and over the next couple of months.

Also macroeconomic issues in terms of potential war in the Middle East are getting much, much worse. So watch gold, watch oil. Again, a lot of things that could topple markets right here. So have a great day. Catch you next time. Bye bye.