Bitcoin in Price discovery mode

Hi everyone, hope you had a great weekend. There were no market updates yesterday. It was a public holiday here in Adelaide. So I had the day off with my family down the coast. Really, really important to unplug, unwind. Couldn’t really escape it though with some alerts popping off. Bitcoin ripping through 70, 000.

So we are in price discovery mode. Really, really exciting. I’ll point them out a bit in a sec. Just a bit of news that popped up here. I follow Eric Balchanis and also James Safart from Bloomberg. They were bang on the money for the Bitcoin ETF approval and giving you great odds in terms of what their likelihood was that it would be approved.

They’re putting the May deadline of Ethereum ETF approval at 35%. So that is really, really low. I expect rather than. We might see a delay here for a multitude of unknown reasons. That’s really, really low, it could change. But I think for now we probably need to anticipate that Ethereum ETF likely is delayed and won’t be approved.

I think once it gets approved, we’ve got the blueprint of what kind of inflows we get for Bitcoin. And with Ethereum being lower market cap, it is one of the best risk adjusted bets investments you can make, I think, in this space. Probably going into Q3,  Q4 potentially this year. But I wanted to keep you updated.

around the ETH ETF. Again, the ETH ETF is an interesting one because this performed really really well this year without it and that was the thesis behind getting into ETH regardless because there’s going to be the speculation into it and if it gets approved, happy days, it will go up higher likely but yeah, again you can play the speculation, you also play the the news dropping as well.

Alright, Bitcoin is in discovery mode. This is just a quick chart I whipped together, generally from peak to all time high retest breakout. It’s around 1065  days. That’s exactly what we did in 2017 to break out there. Also, and again, this is a double top. So I’m going from the first one, cause I think that was the real top of the bull market, which was in March, 2021.

That was around 1060 days, 1090 days. So very, very similar. We’ve now cracked that all time high. First time before the halving. So this cycle, I think so many misconceptions are going to be smashed, including diminished returns, a lot of other things as well. I think this cycle again is going to be slightly different.

How, who knows, but we’re now entering that discovery phase, price discovery phase and the green boxes here, we’re entering that now. So this can be really, really aggressive, which I think it will be based on the inflows or it can be muted and just sort of be drawn out over a long period of time. I don’t think that’s the case.

I think we will get some pretty high numbers this year. And then we have essentially a correction which could be like a mid cycle correction, potentially for continuing in 2025. But I want everyone to be geared for the possibility that we don’t actually have. You know, further highs in 2025 where we just have a cool off end of cycle actually early because everything feels accelerated.

But if you look, zoom out the big macro picture,  you know, demand is well exceeding supply at this stage and this could be the cycle where all models break. So I just wanted to have a super cycle eventuality as a possibility, a percentage point in your mind. that it could just be different this time. And full disclosure, there’s some Bitcoin in my portfolio and other cryptos I’m just not selling, regardless of what price it gets to.

It’s generational wealth, handing it down to the kids  and whatnot. And that gives me tremendous confidence and almost like an anchoring bias. I guess you could say that, you know, it takes the emotion out of the market. We’ve always got something in it. It doesn’t matter. But there is a portion, a percentage of your portfolio, which again, we go through with the course on how to structure that long term, medium term and short term and also active players. 

And how you can make some serious money in the bull markets while also having some capital on the side ready to go for the next cycle as well. All right, just quickly with Ethereum here, it just wants all time highs. It’s just, you know, it’s gotten well above the magnet there. I think there will be a correction eventually.

I think if the May deadline comes and there’s a delay, I actually think Ethereum sells off, which would be really, really healthy. I think you can get Ethereum lower here, but looking really, really strong.  And again, one of the best. Investments I think could be made in 2024 will be Ethereum, especially once it gets that ETF approval.

Solana, I think there’s a big three. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana. Solana all time high lagging, I think by a couple of months behind Bitcoin and Ethereum. So this will catch up eventually towards my magnet there. 250 doesn’t seem very safe. It’s, it’s, again, it’s going to be like a magnet here. It’ll just chop around here for a little bit more and then it’s going to move up and it will be pretty explosive in my view.

Also, don’t, don’t, don’t, Forget about the main points. I think some of them are just consolidating for a high push dogecoin. Bitcoin of the main coins. A lot of capital. I think we moved back into it and you want to be looking at the coinbase app. You want to be looking at finance was trending that you know the ease a lot of retail.

Yes, in this case, we’re just seeing drip feeds of retail coming back.  You know, the access is what’s really important here. Bitcoin and Ethereum kind of hold a lot of the capital needs. You’ve said that’s not really filtering down what we’ve seen in the last few cycles yet. So you’ve got to focus on how retail is coming in, how they’re accessing it.

Just look at it real simple terms. And I looked at the Coinbase app just before and it’s XRP, Cardano, Unit bias, you know, really, really low as well, meaning the denominator of how much a coin it is. Retail sees that, they go, they skip through Bitcoin, Ethereum, too expensive, they just go down the list. And they go, that, that, that, I can get rich off that.

And then you’ll see those big pops. So that’s what I’m looking at here, Dogecoin and others. Also guys, just finishing on this.  If you are not a client of ours, make sure to take this opportunity now, because this is the point where you are going to see the biggest gains out of this bull market. It’s positioning now, you know, the best time was yesterday, but the better time is now.

So if you haven’t booked a call with Elliot and our team, make sure you do. There’s no obligation on that call. It’s a strategy call, so get on it. Joe did a great post on that here. We’ve been through multiple cycles together and I can just say we’re really good at this and we’re going to help you on your way, give you that education, you know, lead the horse to water.

You do have to do the action steps of course to make the money and, you know, execute the strategy in your plan. But you need to know how to approach it that I think that’s the really important thing We give you the education and all the knowledge and the guidance to get you to that that place So even if you are a client here, and you know someone that is getting dipping their toes into crypto But you know, they’re kind of all at sea.

They don’t even know how to secure their crypto They don’t even know about the Bitcoin halving that I know or any of the multitude of dynamics on why the market is ripping Right now, you know the ETFs Make sure to point them in our direction and tell them to book in a call with us to try and give them the right expertise to nudge them in the right direction.

So, guys, hope you’ve had a wonderful day and we’ll catch you again in the pro next edition and episode in the Octagon Bible on Wednesday. So see you then. Bye.