Be defensive as 0.50 Cut looms and Trump fears Grow

Hi everyone, welcome to today’s Monday Rapid Fire. Never a dull moment in these markets. Boy, in Matt Grope this morning we’ve seen a second attempt on Trump’s life, and I’ve been very interested in seeing the market reaction. You could also discuss polling, but I think we need to wait on that to see where that comes.

I suspect it’s going to be a little bit like where they almost took his head off and his polling went up after that and Biden dropped out, you know, for a few weeks after that. So we’re going to have to watch how this shakes out. But yeah, we’re looking at gold here, and I think the instability in the world right now including, you know, rate cuts coming in three days time, which we’ll get to in a sec, is seeing that gold and precious metal just running away to new all time highs.

Now, to my firm’s thesis that this is Leading Bitcoin like it has done at the ends of previous liquidity the start of a new business cycle, which we’re about to see in Q4. So I think this is almost telegraphing Bitcoin’s direction up and to the right. It’s just Bitcoin is trying to work its way through its correction and then coming to the end of that.

But yes, I think we are very, very close to us mirroring gold here. A little over to CME. Now the probabilities have gone from a pretty high likelihood that we’re just going to get a 0. 25 rate cut. It’s now putting a 0. 5 chart on the agenda at 58 percent and I do think what we’re kind of seeing now here is a  bit of instability in markets and we haven’t really seen it in the SP500 yet with futures there.

So the SP500 is closed at the moment, but futures are open. They haven’t really shown too much either way, but if the if the prediction markets are correct and we’re seeing a growing likelihood of a 0. 5, that’s a bit of a surprise, it’s a bit of a shock. It’s not overly shocking in the fact that the fencing, like the game lock, that we’re like to bottom.

inflation but a 0. 5 after sort of 0. 25 was kind of the consensus  we see that more aggressive approach i don’t think market’s going to like it and i’m treating this as a very much a self news event just if it was 0. 25 i still think it’s it’s a self news event but a 0. 5 i think that almost gives us that surety that it’s likely going to be a an event that’s going to show us extreme volatility but we just have to be careful and that’s just broadly what I’ve told the masterminds this morning as well.

I think we just need to be very defensive. There’s a lot going on. September is always going to be, you know, an absolute shit show. Pardon that, that word there. But I think we just have to be very defensive until after the break cuts because that is the pivot point.  The few days afterwards, we’re going to see which direction these markets are going to take.

How is all this going to affect and get digested.  We do have to remember though, whatever the Fed does, it will have a lagging effect on markets. So this is why I’m expecting a silver news event, but then a rally out of it after, you know, the week or so after that in the back of September. It is going to take, you know, I think into 2025 before we see the real recessionary impulse.

The Fed’s going to try and cut, JPMorgan’s saying they’re going to try and cut about 1%, you know, by the end of 2024. So,  I think it’s, they’re going to try and get in front of next year. We’re also seeing the, the 2 years, the 3 year the 10 year, they’re all around that 3. 5%. While Federal Funds Rate right now, you can see is, you know, above 5.

So, there is quite a They’re going to try and cut that back as far as possible, as quickly as possible, but also without spooking markets. They come out with 0. 5 though, that’s kind of contradictory, which will spook markets, but  who knows what Powell wants to do. Again, we just want to be a little bit defensive here and aware that there is a big catalyst coming.

S& P 500 is, you know, moving to break out to new all time highs. And it’s, it’s kind of weird to me because I think if there is a major pivot point, a major catalyst coming, and we’re racing new all time highs, it kind of, these kind of things generally take the opposite effect and cause a trend reversal.

So again, I’m just very cautious about stocks here, even though how good they look in the short term. And also the DXY, as soon as he’s following the squiggle there, that you know, if the rate cuts, you know, Cause greater liquidity, and also a haircut to the dollar, and we’re seeing that at the moment, and if point, if it says 0.

we’re seeing the DSY really, you know, struggle here, and I think it’s going sub 100. We’re seeing the reaction down here, but there could be a bit of a bounce underneath, but generally the dollar is going to find a real tough time of it. The FED is undertaking a pretty serious rate cutting regime, which it doesn’t look like it is.

But again, it’s all pointing to up and to the right. We just have to be very, very patient here in terms of the cycle and where Bitcoin sits. Now, Bitcoin, I’m going to predominantly focus on this today. You can see how close we are to the rate cuts at the end. My yellow line here is, or my pathway here for price is essential, is what I think will happen if this daily bull divergence plays out.

So price is lower than the last low while the RSI is actually making a high high. Confirmation though needs to be with a higher high and a follow through of price, but the 200 day moving average is kind of my barometer here, sitting at about 64, 000 even. We want to crack this previous high, create a higher high, higher low, grab some liquidity there before the actual bounce.

You can see here, just in this recent PA, we’re making lower highs. So it does look like we are compressing into this band. So it would not be surprising to see us sort of do this kind of motion, where we break people out and go down to, you know, lower 50, 000s one last time in some macro volatility. And then we finally have the breakout that we want.

So that’s what I’m looking for. We also had the weekly close, which is super positive with the bullish engulfing. Doesn’t mean anything though,  in these kinds of periods, because even the monthly candles, monthly chart looks pretty good. Okay. The volatility you can have in the short term is absolutely outrageous.

It’s just kind of where these candles close. And I’m looking at the weekly 50 moving average, staying above that. and also the monthly 10 EMA. So if you’ve got those two on your charts and we’re closing above them, we are at a very bullish posture still, no matter what anyone says, that closing beneath them, then we have problems.

FBTC is the chart that just keeps on giving to the bears another break to the downside with this bear, excuse me, strong bull divergence Completely broken through to a level on the weekly. Yeah, so we had a weekly close below, the daily looks like it’s in continuation mode. There will be a point this thing bounces, but it just seems right now that you are  guessing and gambling where this is going to stop.

So anyone who’s in maybe this area of the year might be a good time to maybe manage some risk and get back in when we see some strength. Because right now this is all pointing south and we’re seeing Bitcoin dominance. Likely moving to that 60 percent finally, would you believe? After looking like I was going to break down multiple times, everything is pointing towards higher, especially if the market is feeling quite defensive, leading into a particularly volatile macro phase.

Again, that’s all short term dynamic stuff. If you’re a longer term investor, you’ll have your strategy, you’ll have you know, plans in place. This will not shake you. You might get a dip to buy lower, you know, one or two more times, short, maybe even more. But broadly we’re seeing the cycle play out almost to a T and Q4 should be really, really positive for this market.

So guys, hope you’ve enjoyed this episode. Any questions or comments please leave them down below and we’ll get to them. So thank you. Bye bye.