ALTCOIN ROLL CALL. IS SOLANA TOAST!?

Hi everyone. Welcome to a Monday market update. Hope you’re all having a wonderful day. I love filming these so early in the day. I got a lot of energy and a lot of things that I’m looking at right now, which is really exciting. Just wanted to address the Bybit hack. Hope everyone learned from that experience.

It’s why in our feedback sessions, we are very, very strong on  Advising a 30 percent rule for yourself. If you’ve got lazy capital, if you’ve got lazy assets sitting on an exchange, not doing anything, and it’s a large percentage of your portfolio holding, try and manage that risk a lot better. It’s exchange risk, you know, for a reason those of us who’ve lived through FTX Luna, anchor protocol, you know, others.

No, it’s like just feel totally helpless. Thankfully, I haven’t lost any money in those things, but I remember dealing with people who had and in the moment trying to, you know, deal with that sort of crisis management. It was horrible. A lot of people lost a lot of money and it can be mitigated. It can’t be completely avoided, but it can be mitigated by, having some security processes in place where you keep only a certain amount of percentage on your portfolio on an exchange at any given time. There will be times, of course. And I do this as well, or I have more than that 50%. I’ve maybe have 70%, but in short bursts, when I need to make major decisions in my portfolio, when it’s done, move it back.

So just keep that in mind. Thankfully, Bybit, the bank run on Bybit was all OK. They had all the funds they said they did. And it didn’t turn out to be an FTX  sort of situation. But yeah, it does show you what happened. And I know a few people who had. Trades in place on Bybit and because the collateral was stolen from the exchange and whoever had, you know, they keep all their Ethereum and Bitcoin in I guess, hot wallets and cold wallets at any given time, but the hacker took those.

So anyone who had trades in place that were using cross margin and using the collateral, of those assets in place. Once the collateral was stolen, those trades were liquidated immediately. So there were situations where, well, a lot of people got there, didn’t have any funds taken and there’ll be reimbursed one to one.

There were a lot of people that incidentally lost a lot of money. So my heart does go out to you today, guys. So hopefully you’re feeling okay. But just broadly, it’s a lesson we can all. Need a friendly reminder about because I think we’ve all gotten a little bit complacent, a little bit lazy that these things don’t happen anymore.

And I know once FTX happened, everyone was worried about crypto. com, they’re worried about Gate, they’re worried about KuCoin, worried about you know, Binance, if that went up. So, just keep that in the back of your mind and we’ll go from there. All right, some things that I’m really liking today. Now, in my larger mastermind session, I went into a lot.

A lot of the broader dynamics. I’m really liking including, I know, call me crazy, the equity market looking, you know, a little bit weaker. And the reason why I like that is because gold’s shooting off to all time highs. We’ve got treasury yields that just need to come down and the capital to buy those bonds needs to come from somewhere.

And if people are buying the bonds, yields come down. That means  more liquidity in the system, you know, less restraints on that liquidity, just flowing out everywhere. Bank lending becomes a little bit more feasible and a little bit more attractive. Again, liquidity, liquidity, Trump wants a lower dollar. He wants lower yields.

He wants to incentivize growth. So the trend is very clear. It’s just, how do we get there? And it does look like, I think a  sky high stock market just coming down 10, 20 percent will probably give us that. impetus we need. But gold moving high is a complete other kettle of fish.  Bitcoin and gold seem to interchange the pump.

So gold is going parabolic right now, you know, the next screaming high. That tends to, Bitcoin tends to lag gold by about, you know, one to three months. Is that going to happen? Is it going to happen now? Is it going to happen in a week’s time? Is it going to happen next month? Or, you know, does it happen at all?

Very interesting questions. I think it does follow the same fundamental dynamics. So Bitcoin right now is just building. We’re just waiting. A lot of indecision, a lot of fear out there, which is why I think Bitcoin and gold are going to really go hard, or at least Bitcoin is waiting its turn to go really hard soon.

So with that all said in mind we’ve got the dollar falling over. We’ve got yields beginning to, you know, move lower. We’ve got the stock market beginning to show a little bit of weakness. All those in my view are good things, but it’s going to take time to play out. The charts will ultimately tell us what the hell is going on.

And if we’re looking at Bitcoin on the weekly here. And the monthly still looks fine to me as well in terms of momentum and other things.  But the weekly is interesting. As long as we are continually closing above this 10 EMA, then I think, you know, these prices are off the menu. So 90,  084. But if we’re just looking at this very, very soberly, we’re in a very tight range.

Let’s just say where these weeks hit at the top is probably the heart of the range 108, but for mine, it’s probably anything above sorry, anything below 104. We’re in that range. And down here, just keep it simple. 92. Because if we get a daily close above the green level or below 92, then we’re going to have a decisive move.

We’re still in this.  Uncertain no man’s land choppy ranch. We need a decisive move up or a decisive move down to either form a low or, you know, give us that compression expansion that we want to see. So for mine, everything is fine. We just need to wait for that next big movement. And altcoins are just interesting to me right now.

I think Bitcoin is. Coiling for a big move. Again, we dunno know which direction it’s gonna go, but I think with everything in the macro that’s happening, I think it’s destined to move higher, sooner rather than later. But the alt coins again, are interesting because we’re seeing some signs of life in certain aspects of the alt coin market, which we haven’t seen for a while.

And I just hate looking at this chart and I don’t look at it very often, but Ethereum is trying to show something here. And I will add the overlay of BybitHack. It was exclusively centered around Ethereum, essentially, and with Bitcoin stolen as well. But it was a huge amount of Ethereum that was taken.

There was lots of concerns around the security of the processes, you know, the multi sig, the signing, all that.  Ethereum, what did it do? It didn’t, look, if this has happened,  A month or two ago, the whole market would have just gone down, you know, 10, 20%, but it didn’t  very interesting. And it kind of tells me that sellers are really approaching a level of exhaustion.

And there’s this complete despair in the market. And this kind of, this phase can last quite a while, this choppiness that, you know, the sentiment. You know, sellers. So eventually we’re just going to have a moment where it just flings the other way. And I’m wondering, is a theorem approaching that moment?

It’s starting to outperform things like Solana and it’s beginning to, you know, something like suey that’s been really strongly starting to chop around and look like it might be just heading a little bit lower as well. But a theorem looks very, very interesting to me here. The big week grinding out this  Making these bullish engulfing candles above these wicks.

Ultimately, I’m not really keen on Ethereum until it’s back above maybe this level up here.  Let’s just say it climbs out, does that. It’s creating this higher high higher low. So I think once that happens, then, you know, Ethereum’s off. And it does it eventually. I really think it does. I’m in the most hated rally in crypto.

But it’s all about whether Overall, if you’re holding Bitcoin and you’re holding these others, are you just outperforming over a longer period of time? That’s, that’s my question mark, but a good trade is a good trade. If we just go to SBTC here, similar dynamics, and I’ve just got this sort of squiggle that I have with the masterminds is that while this looks really nice, this could just be another rising wedge running into overhead resistance before it just rolls over and does it again.

So at minimum,  I want to see this peak reclaimed. And you can see here, it’s kind of this higher, higher, higher low situation, reclaim that peak. But ultimately the level which you can just trust in the level you can rely on is how much higher 40 percent higher or 30, 38 percent higher up here at 0. 04.

That number is rusted into my brain that if it ever flips that level, it’s a macro high. And that’s when we know that things are really returning. So again, I’m happy to pay.  a premium for more confirmation, more confidence, higher, and leave 40 percent on the table. I don’t care. I do not want to catch these falling knives where they just could just be, you’re catching a dead cat bounce back into resistance before low.

I don’t want to do that. And that’s why I wanted to bring it up. But also that Ethereum is showing something here. So very, very careful. Also, If we’re looking at something like Solana, I mean, what a disappointment it is right now. That’s okay. It’s obviously not its time. And it probably wants to go lower.

And I’m looking here. Ethereum is beating it. So Solana is breaking down against Ethereum. And this looks pretty bad. This looks like it wants to do a full corrective move. Like you say, Sui has done against Bitcoin and others. So that down there,  probably on the mark, maybe 04 doesn’t look good to me. And if we go to sole BTC, this was the level, I mentioned a few weeks ago, guys, it’s just the level that circle there, multi year range.

Bouncing, bouncing, bouncing. If we got the break up, it’s likely Solanum is going all time high. Not only against Bitcoin, but also USD. I’m using Bitcoin as my spotlight to see, almost give me a bit of an edge, spotting what the USD charts might do. Because if it’s starting to beat Bitcoin and it’s making constructive high, high closes or range breaks and all that, the USD isn’t far away from moving too.

But here that multi year range always knew if it was a breakdown, it was going to be decisive. It was going to be lower, break higher, higher,  you know, pretty easy stuff, but you see how this was adhered to for quite a while, couldn’t break down. And then it did here. It did here. So if we just zoom in here, this looks pretty terrible.

In that it’s. Can’t even roll back to the highs. It might, but the RSI looks like it wants to roll deeper and go fully oversold in the daily. This to me looks like we want to contend with this chop in here. I can maybe turn on  volume to see where the next stop might be.  Yeah. So it’s where I’ve got my circle there on that big volume cluster there.

Ultimately, it’s not that big, but in terms of the fall, it probably will be in likely Fibonacci  levels do align with that. Yeah. So the 0. 618 would be the sweet spot in my view. So yeah,  we’re shifting those layer ones around. So if we’re looking at the higher end of the market, which is where I’m focused right now, I’m not focused on the high, high risk, because there’s just not the incentive to move there just yet.

The layer ones are where I want to be looking. Because they’re the least risky and they have pretty solid upwards potential. And I want to see what’s, what’s moving, what’s the dynamics right now. And right now it looks like Solana has lost a bit of that Vogue. Makes sense as well. The retail is just not here.

The main mania is gone. So there is just a constant sell pressure around that. And also, I mean, Ethereum hasn’t had a move. So. Could Solana have topped and Ethereum have bottomed and it’s just shifting the capital, you know, from one side to the other, quite possibly, I want to say bottom and top. I’m not saying for the entire cycle.

I’m just saying in this certain period of time. Now,  if we move on over to the ones that I really like looking for Sui. So it’s not often I, I have bad things to say about Sui, but when it was up here, yes, I did. I wanted to, I got out of it. And just broadly when you see this, and again, what we just saw with Solana ETH.

Okay. Breaking down from this big rising wedge. It looks to be like it’s Solana’s turn to fall over against the, the other big players and Sui’s already had that move. It’s kind of done all that already. And I would expect Solana to do some kind of really similar grounding out move. You hear that rising wedge, Sui versus Bitcoin, the big downtrend actually broke here, which is exactly what I wanted to see.

So happy that it did that came all the way, got trapped all the FOMO longs that bought the breakouts. Normally the fake out that first move came all the way back down to retest the breakout and confident with the 200 day moving average. Love that. And now we’re bouncing out. So for total confirmation for me to be really bullish on this, I love this on the 20 and the 10 here as well.

It looks really, really nice, but I want to flip. You see these peaks, these peaks through here, this green level I have. I want to see this.  If it can do that, we’ve got this beautiful uptrend starting to develop. And that’s breaking out of the, you know, the downtrend. In my view, the trend has reversed. And then get really aggressive when this peak gets taken out, which would be at around about 4, 000.

So I love that. And then it breaks through that level. And then, you know, it’s got power, you know, it’s really moving. And then you can wait for the overhead break. So SUI looks really, really good against Bitcoin. So it’s building against. USD. It’s building its Bitcoin. It’s, I think it was holding against, so against ETH, and this will be a good little example here.

SUI, is it SUIETH? Yes. So SUIETH looks a little bit iffy, but it is just grinding sideways. It hasn’t broken down. It is essentially range bound. So from there, so you can just see bang, bang, bang, bang, bang. So decisive breakthrough here, Ethereum’s in charge. Break up here, you know, Sui’s back in charge. And it’s, it’s all about kind of like, what are you in?

What’s, what risk are you willing to take? You know, Ethereum’s market cap is much larger, so Sui can outperform it quite easily if it has a bit of a trend going, but it could be Ethereum’s moment. Depends what you want your portfolio to look like, depends what you, how dynamic you want to be with your portfolio as well.

All right, let’s move on over to probably the best chart in crypto right now. And that’s Litecoin. And we know it’s likely the first ETF off the, off the block. So compressing here after this big wedge, it’s trying to break out. Ultimately get very bullish above 140 right now. It’s still in this zone, but there’s got this nice kind of rising channel bull flag.

Beginning to emerge up here. It just doesn’t want to break down. It’s holding that 10 EMA closed there today as well. Bit of a bear fake out closed beneath it yesterday for reversal today. Like that, like the RSI to compressing for a much bigger move. And I think this could very well do that. You know, we’ve just draw this out a little bit.

It could be just be a further continuation of the channel before the complete break. So I love that. I think that looks really good. And if we look at LTP, LTC, PTC, we do have a a nice.  Sort of confluence there that the strength is beginning to show and the weekly downtrend here has been broken against Bitcoin broke through here.

And now for mine, the level to break here is the overhead horizontal. So the green level here, so this previous peak, we just want to get above it. We want to do exactly that. My school was doing climb above it. And go higher right now, you can take on a bit of risk. I’m sure if you, again, it’s taking on risk early paying a bit more of a discount to get, take on a bit of risk, or you can pay a bit more of a premium and get in with a little bit more confidence, a little bit higher.

Again, it doesn’t mean that the move is guaranteed. If you buy above that green level, it could just reverse and do something like that. But when you are buying sort of high highs and breakouts and things like that, these are some of the things you need to, so guys yeah, I don’t mind what’s going on here.

I’m still waiting for that decisive break in Bitcoin. I do like what the macro is showing me, you know, apart from events. I’m just looking at the charts. Those charts are starting to warm up to me. And I think there is the potential here for altcoins too. Well, at least some strategically to outperform in the short term.

So don’t mind some of these setups at all. I’m not looking for high risk right now. Just looking at the big boys, but across the board, I think XRP was shaping up. Okay. Doge coin strong, bullish divergence. I think XLM look. rather promising as well. But again, alerts plan upside, downside potential.

I mean, you can win at these markets upside and down. If you have a plan, that’s a, that’s sort of my thinking. So have a great day. Oh, also quick announcement. It is not a hundred percent confirmed yet, but it’s likely that we’re going to have a webinar with finally got James Safar from Bloomberg back.

There was a bit of an issue with communication for a while there, but he is, he knows everything about ETFs inside and out. So we’re likely going to have a webinar with him from Bloomberg. And also Jamie Coutts from Real Vision. Everyone loves Real Vision, don’t they? Raoul Paul’s Real Vision. So he’s the head analyst there at Real Vision and he yeah, would like to do something with us.

So that could be really exciting. But when we have more information I’ll let everyone know. But I wanted to give you that little nugget before it happens because I just love when we get to talk with people we respect and insiders in the industry. So yeah, have a great day guys. We’ll catch you again soon.

Bye.