MUST WATCH Exclusive Monday Update – Climbing a wall of worry!

Hi Masterminds, hope you’re all really, really well. We’ve had the move that I was hoping we would get and like we discussed last week and week before, the data was aligning for this contrarian move to the upside and it came about and it’s always nice to see things follow through when you have a hunch or an inkling.

And you know, just the feeling around the entire market was just alright. We’re gonna just grind again back towards the lows  But again, everything was sort of pointing to me that this is the classic kind of sucker in Bear trap  type move and we had the spring. So let’s maybe  Dig and populate that move and just go through it and see where we sit Where we might go from here, and I’ll also share with you some other items that I do want to just cover off today. 

Okay, so let’s start, first of all, on the monthly.  The monthly chart. I’ll just make sure I’ve got all that. Yeah, done. Perfect. Okay, so on the monthly chart, I mean, you can’t get too much better than how we’re positioned. And I’ll just try and just leave it there. So let’s talk about time wise as well.

This blue box, which we’ve had drawn for a while and we’ve changed color a few times. In fact, let’s see if everyone can see it a bit better. Let’s go yellow. So the extent of this box was the exact amount of time that we saw in 2020 for 2020. after the halving before we had the breakout of the ramp.

So think about it as maybe I think about 000, that type of, that type of region where we cracked through the, I guess, the all time high ceiling and went off. So obviously we made an all time high a bit early this, this this cycle, but I’m still really looking at that sort of ceiling, that the area that we’re just contending with is a similar area.

Now we have had one, two, three, four, five, six months of just going.  You know, sideways and really feeling out the lows. Wick, wick, wick, wick, big wick, even bigger wick, massive bought up candle. I mean, that’s what you want to see. This is absolutely huge. Now just check when this closes five days, 23 hours.

If this candle can close green. We are,  we’re on track. Everyone. So  I’m just having a look here as well. Stoke RSI has come back to maybe 60 in the midpoint. That’s a really good spot for it to have a, you know, a crossover here. And then we ran back towards the highs where we had a huge new impulse, maybe up to a hundred, 120, 000, that type of rate, which I feel is pretty much on the cards here. 

Considering that we had a big breakdown, the market didn’t want to accept it. It was completely bought back up into the 60, 000s. The RSI here is sort of sitting around that 65. Now generally I’ve been doing a lot of work on sort of learning more about the RSI and different strategies that we’ll sort of discuss a little bit here today,  but what you really want to say first and foremost is an RSI in an uptrending market, you want to see the RSI be above the 50 in the middle.

Right there. You can see the dotted line right here  in an uptrending market. You want the RSI to be staying above it and bouncing off the 50. You never want to lose it. If you lose the 50, we’re in a  pretty significant downtrend. We’re going to have to work out the lows. That’s where you can start spotting sort of bearish divergences at the lows over a certain period of time.

But on the upside, the RSI is a measurement of momentum. So when it is above 50 and it’s up into these zones, it’s not always telling you, you know, that, you know, it’s in these high areas, so it’s going to roll over immediately. No, it just tells you the market is super, super strong. If you’re starting to spot bearish divergences, if you’re starting to, you know, triple bearish, all that kind of stuff.

Well, yeah, that’s a pretty good trigger for yourself to go, all right, things are really overheated. You can still use it as, okay, we’re open this section generally doesn’t last you too long, but as well, it can allow, like we’ve seen for some of these old coins, It can last in that lower band, the 20s, the 30s and whatnot, below 50 for a long, long time and continuously move back up, hit the 50 or the 20, 30, whatever, and then come back down sort of like dead cat bounce all the way down.

So right now, Bitcoin being above, you know, the middle moving average above 50 when it’s in a very severe uptrend, when we’re doing this sort of pulse up. Consolidation, you know, higher, low about to make the next high impulse. What we kind of want to see is, you know, what, what it’s kind of done here, ran up into that, that 75, didn’t get into the nineties and nineties, still could do that.

But what we kind of want to see is a pullback to the 70 level around that mark. Now we got to 65, a little bit lower shore, but the 70 mark, when you’re in an aggressive uptrend going up to the nineties, back down to 70 bouts for the next high. So that’s kind of what you want to see.  When we’re looking at  a lot of these coins that again are stuck beneath the 50 we just want to crack the 50 and then use it as a new resistance.

So that’s the difference that I’m looking at. You know the extent of this, how low it could go, is probably more down to the 50 but you know you wouldn’t want to lose that. Anyway let’s get back to the monthly chart because you know I just love this setup and it’s back above the 60, 000.

So the monthly looks are really, really beautiful to me. If I just have a look at the moving average sorry, the MACD as well, it does look like momentum is waning here a little bit on the bulk side, but it’s not crossing over. It’s still quite strong. So we could easily, you know, be printing something similar here where you’ve got a couple of these waning strength patterns, and then you get You know, quite a strong, bullish move you know, again to the upside when you get this sort of move there.

But yeah, we’ll have to watch the MACD but really it’s kind of a lagging indicator. So we’re seeing this momentum wane, but again, I think we could be seeing one of these green candles about to fire through this region as we head towards almost certain rate cuts. So  let’s just move on down to the, I’ll get rid of the MACD.

I’m going to go weekly. This is the weekly for May.  is fascinating. Now, it gives you a bit more granularity too. So you can see here that we’re still really much in this quite nicely broadening wedge,  broadening channel, whatever you like to call it. Now, again, if this is a broadening descending wedge, technically 70 percent of the time these break to the upside, we really are seeing the movement of that to attempt that kind of maneuver and this break back above that. 

Excuse me, the 10 EMA, volume up as well, this movement here through break that 10 EMA and the 20 as well is monumental for the short term. So the weekly were back above those two.  It’s exactly what we want to see for short to midterm up trending movements in this market. So closing above these levels, you know, it’s kind of like what we had here, but we just didn’t have the conviction and we hit the top and then we You know, went through the floor there is the opportunity we can go, you know, lower again, but right now just play the ball where it lies.

We’ve had three taps on the top. We’ve also had three major taps of the bottom. And each time it’s just sort of clear that the market wants to push us back into this midpoint for another decision to the upside. And just based on the sort of the fundamental data of the supply shock, supply and demand, the election rate cuts, you know, you put all that together and you sort of think to yourself, well, if this isn’t going to lower.

It’s more than likely they’re going to sit still and go sideways or eventually it is going to rock it up. And when Bitcoin moves, it’s breathtaking. So have that, have that in your mind that, you know, can only really be here you know, for, for a little bit more time. And this is, again, it’s tracking almost perfectly within the cycle length of these consolidation periods.

You know, towards the back end of after the halving. We also have a look here on the weekly on the stoke RSI. We’ve had one crossover, bottom, one crossover, bottom. So each time we’ve come to these lows, we had a crossover, you know, sort of low and then a pulse back up. We’ve now had three bottoms on the weekly stoke RSI in terms of momentum.

So this really has only one  And that’s for another run at this top kind of region. I’m also spotting and I mentioned it last week, but the beginnings of a strong weekly bullish divergence on the chart here. So price action actually fell lower. You see this massive week that went down, but the price action is starting to grind down.

Sorry, the RSI grinding higher, making these higher lows and it was minor, but it was there. So there’s a minor bullish divergence. I might have said it strongly, but I think you can look at it in a few different ways. If I see that on the weekly, I’m kind of like, yeah, I’m really big on that.

And this is also consolidating into this little wedge pattern here. So.  I think we had a break through this moving average because right now on the week, like I said, with the RSI sort of analysis there, we’ve been using that 50, 49, 48 region as support. We don’t want to lose that. If we lost that, then we are going lower, you know, into these kinds of regions here until we can, you know, get back above 50 and be really strong again.

Because again, RSI is a momentum indicator. We want to be above. 50. At minimum, we want to be above 50 for an uptrending market. So a breakthrough here would kind of signal that and also run through it, but I love what is going on here in terms of constructive price action. But yeah, the proof is in the pudding.

We are still going sideways,  back yet again above 60, 000. We’re now at, you know, 64, 000. We were at 64, 000 this morning.  Excuse me. You saw how easy it was when it wanted to, to just pop and pop really hard.  Now, let’s go to the data. I want to have a look at the squiggles that I did last week. I think I said to you guys, like, a beautiful sort of high or low structure is building, and this does look like she wants to crack through and create a high high, but we needed some constructive closure in certain regions.

Now, immediately what I’m seeing here as well, on this break of this support level We had a bit of an uptick in volume, which is really important to have. So if the volume was just kind of me and it just got a bit weaker, there was no uptick. Then you’re kind of like, all right, this is probably a fake rally, but because there was a little bit of an uptick on the volume there I really like this.

It’s minor, but it’s. It’s a slow sort of process to get the volumes back in the market and a bit of that excitement there. Right now there’s nothing really stopping Bitcoin here. Above is where the resistance should come in and that’s, I can’t even see my price ticket. That’s about 66, 000, 65, you know, upper band 66 66, 500.

So do expect Bitcoin to sort of consolidate in this region and then move higher just on these moving averages. But again, there’s nothing much stopping it, at least on the daily chart.  ready, you know, crack through that level, this massive candle here. That was a huge signal here. This big pulse through the 10, the horizontal sport, the 200,  what was that?

The 100. So you can’t really get much better than that. I won’t lie. It looked really, really great. I think my squiggles, there were those, Yellow circles where I wanted this thing to close and you can see I wanted to just at least close it above this horizontal did with this big candle and above the 200.

So yeah, I really, really like that RSI on the data is a little bit easier to see. It is really trying to challenge a breakout here to move higher. Now on the daily we are, you know, well above the 50, which is important. Like I said, so yeah, I really, really like how things are shaping up. I don’t think I’ll go below the  The daily now that I can again, the contrarian says that short term sort of the thinking here could be that  once again, we have made a lower height.

Of course, this is trying to crack through and make a higher high than the first one. And if we do, the uptrend  is there. It’s undeniable.  But right now we are still in this lower high scenario while we’re making lower lows. So that’s still a pretty bearish structure. But this is a really constructive move.

If we are going to take this on, it’s probably gonna be here as well, you know, factoring the other other things around the market as well with the, the dollar falling you know, around about a hundred, $101 and also gold moving higher. I mean, it is a great scenario for this market. So there was something else I wanted to show you as well here guys. 

liquidation heat map. So this is for the future. Now futures have taken an absolute battering of light. Now at this point in time at this juncture we see the majority of the heavy levels of liquidations are actually above us. So what got us through that region around the squeezes that we’re talking about, that massive candle I showed you that ripped through the 200,  that is because a short squeeze occurred where they were heavily short the market with that negative funding.

And we saw it just, you know, ripped through those stop loss levels and propel us higher above those important regions right now. To me, it still looks like the max pain is above us at 70, 000 would be huge. That’s where a lot of people have their stop losses because you can see here this previous sort of swing high.

I mean, from the swing low to swing high, before we had the big dump down, people will have their stop losses above that candle because they shorted the hell out of it and got, you know, that really richly rewarded. But if there’s still shorting the market from this region, you can see the amount of excuse me, stop losses. 

That is concentrated in that region. And I think that’s around 3 billion worth of liquidation in that level. And that could really give us some fuel. And we start to grind into that and get, make people a little bit nervous. Not only do we potentially get a liquidation and send us to a new all time high, but we also get.

The dynamic where people that are shorting, if it’s in big numbers, they will try to quote unquote short cover. So they will try and remain in their short position, but they will immediately buy a Bitcoin spot. And that effect kind of, they’re trying to hedge themselves and trying to get out of their short position.

But if they’re doing that, they’re buying the physical spot and they’re putting more bidding, you know, into the process. And a lot of people do that and it’ll just rip through. So yeah, really, really fascinating. There that I just wanted to sort of. Give you guys a bit more of an idea. Let’s have a look at some other charts just real quick. 

So look, these are all trying to move high, even a little older theory in which just, you know, just so frustrating to watch, but Ethereum has with that green candle broken out of this consolidation structure above that blue line, a little bit of a pullback here before it begins. It grinds up higher through that region.

So let’s have a look at FBTC.  Yeah, that’s a bullish divergence, I guess. With a high low  apathy in despondency around Ethereum and the SBTC is just out of this world. You will make money on Earth. This is gonna have its time in the sun, but yeah, it is, it is a hard one to sort of swallow when you’ve got something like Solana and others that just perform better.

Let’s have a look at dominance. I still, in an uptrend, was trying to break down. It sort of caught itself. Now it’s moving high and make no, make no mistake. Rather, if Bitcoin runs at. Has a go at 70, 000 again and moves higher. The dominance of this market will just shift in that shorter term back to Bitcoin.

We’ll suck the oxygen out of everything, but we start cracking through that all time high region,  are going to fly and catch up because they, again, they’re so far down from where they were when Bitcoin was at that same position you know, not long ago. USDC dominance is falling. This is what you want to see because Bitcoin dominance is going higher.

Sure. But the capital, I guess, in stable coins is moving out of the market. So that could be going into Bitcoin, but it also could be going into alts. We can all see that here on the total three. It’s definitely going into alts. It’s a really big move from let’s say that, that low there. That’s a 13 percent move.

So a lot of capital, market capital is going into the total three.  Love that. And it is kind of ready for a breakout here. Now, absolutely. Can have a little bit of a pullback here into these moving averages, but higher. So altcoins are ready and rocking and it might coincide with Bitcoin doing its thing.

Put stacks on your radar. Just continue to have a really, really nice move.  Pretty good example here of the RSI sort of dynamic I was telling you. So Stacks has had a breakout here, but I would fully expect it to kind of come back just the way it’s looking towards a little bit more of a 50. But seriously, in a breakout like it’s done above the 100 and whatnot, these pullbacks are for buying.

So it comes into these buy zones that we’ve got for our newsletter. I mean, go, go ahead. The Stacks BTC chart. You know, very similar in respects to, I think it looks better against Bitcoin and Stacks has its Nakamoto upgrade firing in two days time. So I expect Stacks to do really, really well over this short to midterm period.

But this is a breakout, make no mistake against Bitcoin. This looks phenomenal. Again, so this is kind of a hit. It’s about 70. So 70 was a bit of an upwards of resistance. So a little bit of a pullback here, maybe the moving average around 50. And, you know, so again, an uptrending market, this is what you want to see.

You also want to see when these pullbacks happen towards key levels. You also want to maybe marry it up with that RSI methodology as well. And it will give you a bit of a a bit of a leg up.  Now, Solana, let’s have a quick gander. Again, I love this chart. You can’t get much better than this. It’s trying to, well, it has broken that downtrend.

It’s now above all the moving averages. It’s trying to pull back here a little bit you know, and there’s so much room to run on this RSI. It has to hold above the 50, but, you know, a little bit of a pullback here to the 50 bounce, you know, go much, much, much, much higher. And this is how it gets to 200 and 250.

It’s just trying to reload. and go higher. I was watching Drift  a little bit here. I’m trying on a daily basis, so I’m sort of struggling. I wouldn’t be surprised to get that going back to 50, maybe come down and sort of test these kinds of levels in here because we did mention that the other day. B& B, how’s that going?

Because it was looking like I wanted, it kind of ran into that overhead resistance as it should into these kinds of regions. So the cell zones and now it’s coming back,  you know, this is just a matter of time in my view. FET, let’s have a quick look. Massive move. Looks amazing. Looks phenomenal.

Stocharis are really overextended here though. So that can have a rollover. Ran straight into the 70 level. So maybe it comes back here to, to 50.  Gold is still rocking higher, wanting new highs still. The meme coins have been doing really, really well. I’ve got mine on PopCat. Once it gets above that 77 level ish, above that, that great, that blue line there, happy day she’s off.

This kind of looks like she wants to correct a little bit.  Anything else there that I wanted to show you? No, it’s really just the big three. Let’s have a look at Sui as well. Cause that was big. Well, that has been a big one of like, I mean, that’s, that’s gorgeous. That’s sort of the  pullback bounce. Big bounce and now it’s, yeah, and this looks really strong.

See how it’s kind of holding above the 50 level. This is kind of what you want to see in that aggressive uptrend where it’s trying to break those upwards levels. So  don’t mind that. Or was it anything else I wanted to show you on the charts? Not really. I think we are, you know, as long as we can crack through.

you know, maintain our position. We could be here for a little while longer but  cracking through that 66, 000 will put us on a, like a magnet for above for those liquidation levels. Also just wanted to touch on this again, poly market, we kind of take it or leave it. It’s a prediction market around the election.

Now naked net 50, 50, we saw that RFK dropped out and endorsed Trump and he dropped out in the sense that he dropped out of all the swing states that matter. So I think it’s 10 swing states.  RFK is still on the ballot in either heavily red or heavily blue states because he doesn’t want to be a spoiler.

But what this will do, and if you, again, still as an investor, the preferable candidate is a Trump administration, especially with RFK  forming a bit of an alliance around that. So it’s kind of like the dream team.  But the thing is, In these swing states, RFK is polling in some cases, you know, five to ten percent, and if this is as tight as, you know, the polls are indicating in some of these swing states, where Harris might be up by a point or Trump’s up by a point, you give him the RFK vote because what an internal pollster was saying, at least for the RFK team, is saying that, that they’ve done some internal pollings, that if RFK were to drop out, how many of those votes would swing to Trump?

57 percent at least. So, you know, a tight election if Trump’s peeling off 57 percent of a 5%, 10%, you know, voting base in those swing states, that puts him in a really strong position. So, yes, pay attention to this. It’s important because it has effects on crypto, so.  Yes, again, we’ll be fascinating.

We also, you know, hear those dovish, dovish tones from Powell as well. So let me just, this is the one thing I forgot about the Jackson Poll.  Have a look. I just want to make sure of the dates. 

Yeah, I don’t know if it’s begun yet. But we saw some comments from Powell.  over the last few days that have sort of confirmed that they are looking to cut roads. So yeah, a very, very fascinating time that we live in. The kind of another side note, which I do want to just keep everyone aware of is that  if we’re thinking about real big picture macro I’ve been seeing a lot of really good content around  liquidity and, you know, 2008 and where we sit now.

And there’s a really fascinating case where.  Each time there’s been a massive financial crisis. You know, since 2008 and other places,  there’s always an event if there’s a year before or, you know, a certain amount of time just before that removes liquidity from the market, or it’s a scare that is kind of a potent signal about what is to come because big balls in the stock market come from big Sucks of liquidity from the market, whether it be the the, the housing collapse or whatever.

When we think about the Japanese carry trade, this is probably the largest trade on the planet where again, people borrow yen, they go out and buy stocks or whatnot.  If that trade, as we saw a bit of a scare this week, if that trade were to again quote unquote stop or unwind or there’s another really systemic shock but it’s much, much worse, which this could really be the trigger for something like and it’s, it’s very obvious at this point, like they said they’ve kicked the can down the road and everything’s fixed, but how often have we heard that?

How often have we heard that something major like this, you know, just don’t worry about it guys, you know, nothing to see here, everything is fine. I’m concerned that this is not the last we’ve heard of the Japanese carry trade and it could be the thing that takes down takes down, it’s so hyperbolic when you say it like that, but you know, something that causes a systemic crash in essentially every market, stocks, you know, all that.

And again, in those kinds of moments, you can’t do too much to buff yourself against it, but just know in those moments when liquidity just gets completely drained from the market. It causes correlations to go to one.  Now, a fascinating tidbit is the US 10 year yield, the US  2 year yield. A lot of them are at the exact same yield percentage as they were in 2007 before the 2008 financial crash.

So there’s not a lot of difference. You know, and something happened on it as an example in 2007 oil, there was what was called a, I believe it was an oil crisis. I can’t remember the exact name. But there’s always an event that pulls liquidity from the market to create the conditions where it can, either the treasury market sees up or the capital flight flies from risk markets.

And in 2007, there was an oil crisis where the price of oil I think went from double digits to triple digits, and it was quite an extreme move. And it, it, again, that is the largest commodity item on the planet that’s traded daily, 20, essentially 24 seven. If you increase the price of that, by that amount, liquidity has to be pulled from somewhere else to buy that product.

And the world still functions around that, but there’s liquidity being moved from one spot to the other spot  and that causes a pretty big drain. And then you had everything else with the housing crisis sort of attached underneath. But again, very, very fascinating that we have an equity liquidity event that gives everyone a bit of an early eye on what might be coming.

So just throwing it out there. It’s. Again, I don’t want to be demure or anything like that, absolutely not. And I think Bitcoin does incredibly well through this phase, but I just want to try and help you guys see around a bit of corners. That’s something that I’m just concerned about you know, in the next 12 months that could be a catalyst for a liquidity drain and liquidity sack from the market.

Because when the yen carry trade goes belly up everyone gets liquidated. That’s done the trade essentially. So there’ll be a mass selling event.  Anywho, I hope you’ve enjoyed this Monday Market Update. Hopefully the positivity around it is quite refreshing. It’s so nice to see sort of the market really respond well, try and get back into a positive uptrend, back above 60, 000 and back above 63, 000, which is fantastic.

So hope you have a wonderful day. Thoughts and comments below, much appreciated. Have a good day, guys. Bye bye.