BTC to follow Gold’s new ATH

Hi everyone, welcome to today’s Monday Rapid Fire. Looking to crack straight in, is the honeymoon over for Kamala Harris? Look, she’s had a tremendous surge of light, which is, you know, fantastic if you’re on that side of the fence. But for us as investors, we’re really watching this dynamic because of Trump’s massive leaning towards Bitcoin and crypto, the GOP platform, the Bitcoin strategic stockpile.

Whereas on the Democratic side, we are still waiting for more meat on the bone, which maybe we’ll get now that the DNC is starting today. We’ve also got debates coming up in the next month, but  the polling has now come back to essentially parity after Kamala’s, again, massive surge ahead in the swing states and also in a lot of these polls that are coming out.

Some still saying it’s, you know, one side or the other. But, make no mistake, this is a very tight election. My personal view is, I think Trump is actually winning this race at the moment. I think a lot of the polls are essentially memes, and we saw that with the Hillary election as well. Look, we will not know until election night, I think, with this election.

So, we are just going to have to wait and see.  I don’t think there is a coincidence between  the polymarket prediction market and some of the movements that we’ve seen in crypto of late, where we’ve seen a lot of the momentum just being moved out of the market or just a muted response to just price action generally.

There are seasonal dynamics at play with Bitcoin here, of course, there’s massive sales on the market as well, but just a lack of real drive in the market and that momentum I think is potentially on the back of Kamala’s chances moving forward.  So again, this is something we just have to pay attention to, but with Trump sort of coming back close, and I think there were 49, 49 on Polly market earlier.

Again, this isn’t the be all and end all, this is just a one prediction market,  and a lot of others put, you know, either Kamala up or Trump up. Again, there’s a lot of Bougaisier, a lot of fake and a lot of marketing going on. But it doesn’t mean people will not speculate on crypto using it as a bit of a proxy.

So,  could be something like that happening at the moment, but we’re going to have to pay attention to how things go from here. A chart that I am watching, religiously right now, is gold. Gold moves higher when we have economic crisis, when it sniffs the basement, when there’s some instability, a lot more liquidity might be on the horizon, a lot of rate cuts.

It’s breaking out to new all time high, 2, 500. Now my thesis is of late that like 2023, gold is leading Bitcoin and Bitcoin will follow gold sooner or later.  And I think we’re close to that happening.  What I’ve noticed as well, just visually on the charts is, you know, gold bottomed in October 23, also bottomed on the 3rd of November, that’s when Bitcoin bottomed as well.

So that was when I noticed the dynamic back in 2023 of, you know, that Bitcoin following the gold movement on FA reasons. And I think Bitcoin does that as well. So. If gold kind of bottomed in this region here what was that, on the 6th of August say, so earlier in the month, or, you know, you can pull it back to the 2nd of July, we could really be lagging a move like this by about, you know, a few weeks or a month.

So, that’s kind of what I’m thinking of at the moment. Bitcoin’s obviously going to do what Bitcoin does, but I think if gold moves higher, we’ve got the S& P 500 essentially doing a V shaped reversal, looking like it wants to run to highs as well. We’ve also got the dollar looking incredibly weak and breaking down.

These are the dynamics that Bitcoin should fly in. So it’s not going to stay like this forever. There’s clearly some overhang that’s going on with either options or derivatives. Maybe some big sellers coming onto the market behind the scenes, sure. But when this is over I think the upside move is going to be, you know, explosive.

Especially after, you know, a few months.  four or five month compression. So that’s something I’m watching. Also, the divergence between price and the ETF flows is something that I just can’t ignore. And this again, this is a longer term time horizon situation. You have to think about this, but  the inflows into Bitcoin have been consistent without being Outstanding.

The outflows have been quite strong when we’ve had, you know, downside volatility, but broadly we’re just seeing a consistent flow, and BlackRock is the king here. They just keep getting inflows. They have not had an outflow day, I don’t believe, since they’ve been operating. Other funds, you know, taking those inflows as well, but here and there, again, when there’s a bit of fear in the market, this just shows you that I think on the upside, when we are raging towards those highs you know, where there will be a hundred thousand and above the ETS will allow investors to quickly take profits on their money So I don’t think that money will just stay in this ecosystem.

You know in the shorter term, I think longer term It’s going to get locked in of course but investors will take profits if those profits are outsized in their portfolio via these ETFs. So if it’s something like a Bitcoin strategic stockpile comes onto the scene, though, that could change the calculus that people are just going to hold no matter what.

But yeah, a lot of these ETF flows are just fascinating to watch. And I expect them to continue to grow over this next phase, especially if let’s say Trump’s chances of winning begins to according to the polls and whatnot and also after the debates look like it’s going to happen. So pay attention to that.

Also wanted to dispel a couple of rumors about the U. S. government selling more Bitcoin. They did move it. You can see here five days ago they moved this according to Arkham Intelligence. They moved 10, 000 Bitcoin to Bitfinex, but they haven’t sold any yet. They’re still  holding them in their wallets so until they sell them they’ve just moved them, so I just wanted to dispel that they’ve got 200,000 ish bitcoins still on their balance sheet, the US government, so they have not sold.

And that’s important though. If we are, you know, sort of assuming that Biden sorry that the Harris administration going forward will want to be the same hostile sort of approach to the crypto crowd. We don’t have a lot to go on yet. That’s why I want more meat on the bone. So far, I’m not convinced about, you know, their approach to. 

Crypto being positive some senior Democrats are, absolutely, they want to move legislation forward in the Senate and Congress, but the administration itself, again, I’m not convinced that they’re going to be pro crypto. You know, happy to change that tune when we see some actual policy come out. So,  Let’s start.

Let’s wait for that. Now guys, as well, if you weren’t aware Joe, myself and the Uptrade team, so a big brokerage here in Australia, a great unit over there we did a webinar with them last week, and you want to tune in and watch this. So there’s six hyper growth bull run crypto picks. We talked through them.

They’re great. Essentially low cap gems. We’re watching them really, really closely. That’s something as well that Tristan’s identified in the mastermind group, in our top 10 low cap gems list as well. If you weren’t aware, that’s something we do in the masterminds. So yeah, we’re just to, to watch this.

Hope you enjoy it. Give us your feedback around it. Hope you all have a great day and we’ll catch you again for the altcoin Bible on Wednesday. All right guys. See you later. Bye bye.