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Short-term US Treasuries are being dumped as sovereigns and investors scramble for cash to cover oil and import premiums.
Central banks can raise rates, but they cannot print energy. This is a consumer-driven inflationary moment with serious downstream effects.
Rationing, travel restrictions, thinner shelves, and emergency stimulus are realistic scenarios if the energy disruption plays out over 6–12 months.
No greater than 50% allocation feels prudent for most. Cash on the sidelines lets you act when shock moves arrive.
Until Bitcoin closes above 74 on the weekly, monitor DXY, S&P, and Bitcoin. Don't force entries. Wait for the deep shocks.
