I’m Feeling Contrarian on Altcoins right now

Hi everyone, welcome to today’s Monday Rapid Fire. Love cracking in on the weekly close and the day of the close on a Monday, a little bit later this afternoon, which is fantastic. I’ve got a big day of fun chats, looking at the markets just broadly, a lot of feedback to our mastermind clients. So guys, if you’re watching this and want.

The extended version of our Monday Market Update which is in depth. I go through forensically across the the entire market and have a look on what is on my watch list, what is performing and what I’m actually looking for. I’m going to go into that a little bit today with you as well because My whole theme this week, and honestly, because you’ve read my newsletters and maybe you’ve seen some snippets about what I’ve  been sort of drilling into the masterminds over the last,  let’s say, six months, kind of Bitcoin focused.

If it’s not beating Bitcoin, why are you in it? That’s still absolutely the driver of everything I do and what we do. However, it’s important to also see and just sense the wind changing just a little bit.  And I’m feeling very, very contrarian about these markets. I, you’ve got some very interesting signals popping up on some of these charts, including strong bullish divergences, some 90 percent down from the highs.

Sentiment is as bad as a bear market right now in altcoins. Bitcoin’s so effectively 100, 000. Whereas the altcoin market’s in total apocalypse right now.  There are opportunities everywhere, and I think keeping focus really narrow, keeping your, your larger, longer term picture absolutely in, in focus is so, so important.

But if you’re looking for short term trading opportunities, if you’re looking for longer term entries, Small position sizing of your larger  capital allocation to some of these alts. Maybe you’ve gone back into Bitcoin waiting for the right moment to strike. There are moments coming up. There are moments now where you can take a look, you know, some risk on and maybe have a look.

That’s kind of what I’m looking at right now and I’m doing. But just on a broad, broad sense,  the altcoin market is so unloved. It’s been smashed so hard over the head that there is a bounce coming. Whether it’s Tomorrow, next week, next month. It’s coming and do not be surprised because this market just turns on a dime.

And the capitulation we saw last week was bloody epic. Like, it completely cleared the decks. And we’ve had, you know, the move down, everyone gets a bit of foam and just wants to buy the epic dip. And then we’ve just had a grind back that’s just sort of retraced the wick on a lot of these charts. Which drives people absolutely nuts and they sell their positions that they actually bought on the way down.

This is just perfect capitulation, chop solidation,  you know, of the altcoin market. Bitcoin holding strong, but there are, again, there are signs that altcoins are beginning to firm up. So instead of me just chirping along, I’m going to bring us into the charts. So Bitcoin here on the weekly doing everything I want it to do, and that is hold the 10 EMA on the weekly.

So now we have that really nice close back above that blue line there, the 10 EMA. RSI just going sideways, just chilling, going, hey guys, what’s all the what’s all the noise about? It’s like, well, it’s in the old coins. That’s where the pain is being felt. I’m sure you guys know that. But here, if we can close this week in a bullish engulfing, meaning that this green candle here maybe gets bigger than this body here and starts climbing higher, then I think we’re in a really good spot.

But ultimately back above 100k, but 105, 000 above my green line here. We get above that.  That’s when we are, you know, going higher and trending, but just at a very high level, we’re doing something very, very similar to back here. It just looks like we’re building for a big move higher. And it’s just taking a lot of energy.

to get that, that move going higher in mid year when we have a lot of the reserve talk kicked back in and all that kind of stuff. So we’re building towards that, but in the interim, we’ve all sort of forgotten about the altcoin ETFs. We’ve forgotten about the tremendous tailwinds. Never before seen a pro crypto administration and an altcoin market that has just been so heavily smashed that no one wants a piece of it.

That is when I get really, really interested. Just finally on Bitcoin, we’ll go down to the daily. Just have a quick squeeze of what’s going on here.  Holding the 100 moving average, this brown line here that I’ve got in my charts, oh, don’t do that, it’s okay and these candles are just ridiculous, you know, so much indecision in the market, but it’s holding the key level.

We can flip  this overhead level, so 97, let’s just say we can get to 98, 000 even, we flip that, we close above, you won’t be the 10 EMA on the daily. I think the upside’s, you know, back. Altcoins will have a lot of buoyancy. This RSI is just having a joke with itself, just basically playing dead and then starting to slope up.

That’s pretty funny. It’s just an elongated move like that. Let’s have a look at the altcoins. I just want a quick look at dominance. So  we can think about, you know, is this a super cycle where Bitcoin just holds its, its, strength for a lot longer and all that. I’m looking back though,  I don’t, you know, I love theorizing and hypothesizing and all that.

If we go back to 2021 in January, so pretty similar time where we are now, I think it was here, we had a  fairly similar You know, sort of blow off move, and it went, you know, about 5 percent from the, I guess, the start of it up to the, the top, and that was the end of it. Before we went into this, you know, epic altcoin bull market, where Bitcoin still went up, but the altcoins really took over in terms of the capital allocation.

Where are we now? Well, we had a Not exactly the same, but a fairly similar just blow off move the other day with that capitulation event. That was pretty staggering. Like how it went from 60 percent up to 64%, and very, very similar to back in 2021. So 5 to 6 percent move.  You know, this can go high, absolutely.

But it’s actually a reasonable spot for Bitcoin to begin to lose a bit of steam. against the altcoin market and the depression and repression that we’ve seen in the altcoin space. There’s every reason for me to think the contrarian move is at play here. I think there is a short term, you know, trade ahead on.

I’m like, there’s so much opportunity here. If I just manage risk and get into some of these,  we’re off. Yeah, again, it may not pay, play out like that, but it’s worth, sometimes it’s worth the punt in my view. Total three, let’s just have a look here.  We zoom out  all survey. What have we done?  Breakout, come back, retest the breakout.

That’s all we’ve done. That’s.  Uber bullish. So, so bullish. You’re just looking in those terms. The total market gap. Yes, it’s more, I guess, Bitcoin focused, but it doesn’t really matter. The total market gap. Look at this.  Right back onto the peak. So that’s the breakout, retest, previous peak, breakout high.

Very interesting situation.  Something like SUI always got my eye on.  So some of these charts, excuse me, some of these charts are beginning to show signs that They are bottom. I know I said that in my intro. Let me just rewind.  And what do I mean by that guys? So let’s just have a look at SUI.  Now, I’m by no means saying go out and buy SUI.

I’m in no means saying that SUI has bottom. I’m saying that there are many things lining up for me, including  huge sell off, back into major volume support, hitting key moving averages and holding above, strong bullish divergences here, where the market’s at, sentiment. A lot of it is lining up for a pretty nice contrarian bounce.

At least that’s my hypothesis. It’s not necessarily going to play out, but I know I’m looking to find some opportunity here, but if we just look at SUI, just all the way down to the 200 day moving average, if it’s gonna find a place to bounce or bottom, it’s going to be here. It’s going to be on the 200.

Massive wick through, you know, retrace a little bit here. Close, close, close. Now  tomorrow, if this daily close does a bullish engulfing, which means this body of the candle closes a you know, through this support level and also engulfs the last two bodies. I think that’s a pretty good spot where Sui’s going to move into at least this downtrend.

So, Sui can go up, you know, maybe seven to ten percent and then we’re going to see if this kind of squiggle begins to materialize. But that bullish divergence on the bottom of my screen, you can see the RSI beginning to move higher. while the price action is just getting clobbered. Bulls are beginning to find some footing here and this could very well be the start of a larger reversal.

So that’s all I’m looking at here. Things like XRP versus Bitcoin, still not really interested. I want to see some higher levels reclaimed.  And another one I’m watching with particular interest was something like PopCat here. And this is what put kind of like the  risk reward opportunities on my agenda.

PopCat is down. Let us have a look from the high.  92%. That was only a few months ago. That’s bear market moves. It’s happened in the space of a couple of months. So, eventually, these things are going to bounce and they’re going to bounce hard. Yes, I think PopCat is fundamentally worthless. It is just another meme coin.

But, these casinos are casinos, and when they’ve reached a point, they can move very, very quickly in the other direction. And liquidity will move pretty fast when they see outperformance. They’ll move back into it.  And the important thing for me as well is, PopCat got up to I think a billion or so market.

Now I think it’s back in the hundreds of millions. So there is a strong ability for this to do quick, you know, doubles. If you’re, if you’re putting in some good risk with good risk management, rather you know, nice sizable amount of capital, and you’re looking to maybe short term trade, or you’re looking to form maybe a midterm position, what we want to be looking for is exhaustion.

And I think sellers are finding exhaustion across the spectrum. It doesn’t mean it’s the end of any of this. We could be just looking at a bounce into a lower high before it goes lower, but still you are seeking opportunity in the darkness.  So here we’ve got an oversold RSI, you know, well down into the 28th, but we’re seeing a strong bullish divergence.

We’re seeing the RSI  make a higher low. You can see it very clearly there, while price is making those lower lows. Again, doesn’t mean anything until it actually confirms. What made me think that this is legitimate is one that 96% Drop 2,  if you zoom out you can see that this is essentially in a spot where it either bounces or dies So pretty good risk reward entry if you ask me.

I mean this goes back to when it was released on  On gate IO, but back into this crucial support level, which has been held and hit multiple times So yes 2, good spot. And another one for mine is this here So this cluster,  big capitulation wick Lower low, so really freaked people out if you bought a lot of this week here.

Maybe, again, a capitulation panic sold. Then we had this reversal. Ran straight back in, sold into, but this candle here. Massive body, bullish engulfing. So engulfed all of this price action on the left hand side. And then we’ve seen, and it closed importantly above the 10 EMA.  Now we’ve got a really nice setup here for it to run into the 20 and to run into overhead, excuse me,  slightly above.

So there’s a setup here in the shorter term for it to do something like this, but broadly we could start to see the beginnings of a a higher high, higher low. Trend break. Again, trying not to get ahead of myself here, but there is a lot of opportunity out there. I’m saying it once more for the short term, medium term, and long term investor.

Depending on your risk profile and depending on what you’re looking for, everyone is totally different. I myself, just putting it out there, I don’t want to share my portfolio all the time or, you know, what I’ve done. But I’ve formed, you know, positions in Siwi, I’ve formed positions in Solana, liking what I saw on both charts, liking what I’m seeing on the Bitcoin charts.

Nothing is broken out yet or confirmed yet, but I like the risk reward, and I can manage that risk if it falls a little bit or, you know, closes on the daily below certain levels. But just inching into the market. As you’re beginning to see some strength or just sensing something shifting or even sensing just the risk reward has improved.

Something like PopCat, I’ve been trading that in the last 72 hours and I’ve made a ton of money in my shorter term, real tight short term trading stack. It’s been a lot of fun and I’ve been using perpetuals on that. So that’s been really fascinating. So I, this is probably going on a little bit long guys, but I just wanted to put forward a different view on the market.

It’s still measured. You still can be defensive, but when you see opportunity, you can take it.  And you want to go against the grain. You don’t want to just follow what everyone else is saying. So, you know, we’ve all been saying just, you know, try and be managing the Bitcoin a little bit more. That’s what now everyone is thinking.

And of course I still think that way too. It’s how you move from here if there’s opportunity in altcoins and when you move. What is that strategic trigger for yourself? What are you looking at for your, again, moving? You don’t want to be now paralyzed in Bitcoin to make any shifts when you see strength or even when you see value.

There’s a fine balance between the two. So hopefully that’s come across guys. Hopefully you’ve enjoyed this episode and we’ll catch you again soon. See ya.