Flip the script. The real BULL market is about to begin

Hi everyone, welcome to today’s Rapid Fire. I’m here today with a great feeling of positivity because I have been doing a lot of cycle analysis. I’ve been seeing where we have been positioned in the previous cycles, where we are now. and where it looks like we’re about to go. So I’m really confident, really buoyed, just like I always am because I’m a cycle investor and I’m really looking to play the four year cycle and longer, which is really important to help chop out that short term noise.

So I’m going to share a little bit of that today. I’m working on a template for the masterminds, which I’ll share a bit with you today and we can go from there.  So I’m going to share with you the post that I did for the masterminds this morning, provide some clarity and I can sort of run off that and I’ll show you I guess the Bitcoin chart currently and see where we sit and some other things as well.

So I’ve just said here, you know, game time, you know, we want to cleanse the last five months. Of the, I guess, the CHOPSolidation from our,  because I know a lot of you are hurting, a lot of you are feeling the pain, you are potentially over allocated to altcoins and not Bitcoin, because, in essence, Bitcoin went up to 73, 000, went down to 50, oscillating around there back and forth.

It’s really not much. It’s, when you compare it to previous Cycles, the volatility of this Bitcoin cycle isn’t really matching that. I mean, previously we had, you know, 50, 60 percent drawdowns and this one we’ve had, I think, 30, 20, that kind of region. So we are also more advanced in terms of where Bitcoin is, that early all time high.

You know, the bigger the party, the longer the hangover. So we are in a consolidation phase, which is holding up really well above 50, 000, but we’re just watching those levels. I don’t think it really matters when you think about where we are going. So I want to get everyone hyper focused on the resolution of this box, because I think the entire market bottoms and rallies throughout some of the macro catalysts that we are going to see through the middle of this month and the back end, and then we should see a pretty positive Q4.

Sorry.  Yeah, I’ll just run through this. I don’t want anyone to get shagging through at the final hurdle, which I believe we are very, very close to being at. And the four year cycle, it’s funny how, you know, you can get kind of locked into changing narratives and, you know, potentially left translated cycle ETFs changing the game, super cycle, all that kind of stuff.

But the four year cycle just seems to, you know, bring us back like a magnet onto the path. You know, it will look different and of course it has this time of that early all time high but we’re just locking back in and the data behind, you know, halving to all time highs, all time highs to the low of the cycle, lows of the cycle to the highs of the cycle, the days between those points  essentially are identical going back previous cycles, barring, you know, 10, 20, 30 days here or there.

So it’s, it’s kind of all pointing towards that and it runs on the liquidity cycle in traditional markets. So the business cycles. When Central Bank starts to tighten, when they ease, when liquidity out there, it runs along those same types of things. And so with my cycle map that I’m doing, I’m looking to add also nuanced data points like the sell in main go away the summertime doldrums that we’re experiencing at the U.

S. that runs through post halving almost always that we’ve seen. So things like that are going to be very, very useful, I guess, just to know, or.  Allow investors to pivot to go defensive or get more aggressive. There are certain different patterns that you can identify as well as, you know, what is the actual dynamic in, in a bull market model.

Oh, do we see a big sell off? When is that? Do we get a seller name? Go away. What is the deep bear market look like? And when does it usually bottom? How many days is that? What are we looking for in terms of a breaking out of the intermediate phase? Which is the phase after the halving. It’s where we are at the moment.

So things like that is going to be really useful for most people.  And you can read here a little bit more about some thoughts that I have about that. The intermediate phase ends when we break the lead, so when we crack 73, 000, we move straight into the, the bull market. And I’ll just bring this up, you can have a, a quick gander at this and I’ll look, I’m, I’ve created a pretty much interactive map for the masterminds, I’m just going to keep adding to it.

But this is a, a snapshot of the last cycle, where I’m kind of predicting where this next cycle will go. And when I say predicting, it’s really just running on old data. And saying it’s going to be around this month. It’s not going to be perfect. It is going to maybe hit or miss by, you know, a month or two.

But in the end, if you are adept at looking at the bigger on chain metrics as well, when things look overheated, when we’re just racing higher, you know, it’s the same on the downside. When we’re just dropping beneath 20, 000, 15, 000, we’re below the realized price, we’re in that, that region where we should be bottoming.

Well, it’s a no brainer. You know, it’s a great time to be layering in and going heavy risk.  By getting heavier into the market and forming position for the next cycle. So again, I won’t go into this in too much depth, but you can just see here from the cycle load of this cycle, it was 515 days to the halving.

The previous cycle was about 512 days from the cycle load to the halving. So again, you can start to see some patterns from the cycle high in 2020.  I thought it was 2021. Yeah, it is still 2021. It’s 892 days on the cycle high to the halving. Previous cycles were 850, 60  days, one of those two. I just can’t remember off the top of my head.

But again, it’s in the ballpark, it’s in the region. If we follow the exact same path as the last cycles of the 2021 cycle, if we’re going to follow that and think,  All right. So the market tends to top out 100, let’s say 892 days before the halving. You can see I’ve got the new halving drawn here in 2028 and literally done the, the easiest thing ever reverse engineered it.

And it hits essentially right where I’ve got the end of my green box. So that works out really, really well. What else was there? Selling may go away. Time to breakout. So again, just like the last cycle as well, 331 days from the breakout point when we’ve cracked the lid we move into the green box and the intermediate phase is over.

331 days in the last cycle. 331 days here, that’s a guess. Again, it’s just sort of mirroring what we’ve seen in previous cycles.  Then I was kind of mapping out what I think will happen over this next little period. I think this is the institutional drive cycle, so the investment is going to be heavy. The price floor is going to be higher.

You know, getting a massive retracement back towards, you know, 200, is probably, you know, more than likely. I don’t know whether we get down to the 50, 000, 60, 000. Again, I think we’ve created a much higher price floor. But similar dynamics will be involved as well. But right here you can just see where we are right now in the intermediate phase.

We’ve got  the Kamala Trump debate, we’ve got the unemployment data coming through, we’ve got inflation data coming through, we’ve got the rate cut coming through on the 19th. So this is going to be crucial for this next phase. I think it’s going to give us that platform to move into those areas.  And yeah, gold and bitcoin, I think you’re going to see the liquidity  start to hit it pretty soon.

So I don’t think there is a better  And I’ll, I’ll maybe get straight into that now. I don’t think there is a better proxy for the market to  bet on and speculate on a Trump victory than crypto right now. And this is why we’re covering it so much. And yeah, you can get lost in the emotion of Trump, Harris, all this kind of stuff.

Both are going to print a ton of money. Both are going to cut rates. Both are going to expand the debt so that just means that the market is going to follow business cycles, liquidity cycles, so everything you’ll ever see in the past is likely going to happen again.  And it doesn’t matter who gets in the, well ultimately in the long run, but it does matter in the short to medium to long run.

Short to intermediate term.  Don’t say that. Short to medium term. It matters who becomes president. Because one is incredibly pro Krido and the other one is unknown, ambiguous. You have to take it as if Harris gets in she’s going to follow the Biden policy playbook. And maybe even give Warren and others additional power.

Because they are, or she is, more powerful. Centralized in nature. She, you know, her father was a Marxist economist. She has a lot of socialist policies she wants to enact, including, you know, taxing unrealized capital gains, price controls, all that. Don’t go too deep into the weeds, but just trying to look for high level takeaways here.

If that’s her, her inkling, she’s going to hire she has, um, financial experts in her administration, her employer, her advisors, who are going to be more leaning towards centralized policies like CBDCs. So she likes that from what we’ve heard, but again, if Warren is that is hovering behind the scenes and wants to get a larger cabinet position, she’s going to gravitate towards that.

Now that’s just my inclination in the situation, it’s just my opinion, it’s what I’m getting from it. Whereas Trump, they’ve declared their hand at GOP, it’s in their policy mission and all that kind of stuff for the election, so. And also the Bitcoin strategic stock pop. So, I have to take that seriously, the market is going, I don’t think the market has actually worded out yet that a Trump victory is, is more likely and they’re going to just start, the liquidity is going to start moving in there pretty soon I think.

Especially after the debate on the 10th, but the debate doesn’t go well for Harris, then I think we start to move pretty aggressively, and it’s one of the the most obvious trades that I can see if you want to bet on a Trump presidency, you will bet on Bitcoin and crypto, because that is what we’re likely going to see, we’re going to see far more accommodating regulation, far more accommodating administration, administration.

As well, and likely a lot of buying power coming on the market because people want to try and front run this stockpile, even though they own the Bitcoin already. Likely going to add to it, there’s going to be more investment, there’s going to be nation state game theory where other big nations are going to look at it and go, The United States, why are they putting Bitcoin on their, as a strategic reserve asset?

We need to research this, we need to understand why they’re doing it. Again, you can go into the weeds here, but we need to focus on this. This is, this is going to be, the Bitcoin cycle this time is institutional driven, but I also think it’s going to be one of the most heavily politicized cycles we’ve ever seen, and it’s going to become so obvious in hindsight, this trade and this move after the fact, and that’s probably where we want to be selling it, probably sometime next year early on.

All right, let me move back to the chart. So what I kind of like from Bitcoin here, this is, this is, this is not a good looking chart after this, you know, long five, five month chop solidation of the lower highs and lower lows, but we are starting to see exhaustion on the seller side as we run into that 52, 000 level.

Now, why am I saying we’re seeing that seller exhaustion level? Well, just first of all, just so I like that we’ve closed back above the 50. Weak moving average. Thank goodness that yellow light. There’s a poetic kind of move here. We could do it, go down to the ETF level where it launched and fully wipe that out.

But again, that remains to be seen. Let’s go to the daily, because what we’re starting to see in terms of that seller exhaustion  is a full divergence appearing on the daily. So we’ve got the price level, essentially exact same level, if not lower on the right hand side in terms of the bodies of the candles there.

Meanwhile, the RSI is making a higher blow. So it’s a very obvious position here. Now this can give Bitcoin, the platform and the ability to really ramp through here. And I would expect to find it a bit sticky through here. Wipe those shorts if it can, gets up through here, then it needs to climb back above there and then off.

I really can see that happening. But I also can say if we just, if this divergence doesn’t play out, we do not get confirmation. The thing with divergences, you just have to have in the back of your mind, you might see the most obvious divergence in the world and go, this is huge. I’m going to get all in on this trade.

Builds actually have to buy spot to push that higher. If they don’t, it’s not confirmed, it’s not validated. And the problem, like, in many respects with some of these indicators and moves, this does tell you that there’s an imbalance in the momentum, which is great if you’re, you’re thinking it could be moved.

But  it has to, you know, follow through and often it’s in hindsight, you go, well, if it’s broken 64, 000, you’re like, okay, well, the bull divergence is confirmed, it’s following through and the trend reversal’s in play, which is great, but just by seeing a divergence there, you can’t really go all in without it starting to actually confirm the move.

Now, anything else I wanted to show you there? Stoke RSI, you know, double bottoming there. Really, really nice. You’ve got that bull divergence. I really like the look of this, and as well as a contrarian. You couldn’t get the market any more apathetic and downtrodden.  Max Payne probably an ETF retracement.

So there is the potential to go lower. But 50, 000 is starting to build at a really nice psychological as well as fundamental level. I wouldn’t be surprised to see us start to move higher through a lot of this pure uncertainty and doubt. Ethereum as well, just cover Ethereum, I won’t cover any others, I really want to keep the high level and focus on the cycle today guys.

Massive bull divergence here on Ethereum. We do, again, just have to be careful that it doesn’t just tease us yet again and be exactly like we had up here. There was a bull divergence through here, where we saw on the RSI a higher low, as we saw the price action you know, sort of come a little bit lower.

You go, okay, great, bull divergence in the demand zone, we’re definitely going higher. Instead, we went down. Much, much lower. And there is the potential here that if we kind of reclaim this, this might be a dead cat into this level and down. So we need to see us do this kind of motion out of there, which again, is really possible.

The market has, you know, found it slow. And we’re going to climb the wall of worry. And you know, this is the kind of move we’re going to start doing. And you look, everything looks good there, but I’m just sort of holding my breath a little bit to see what happens. But if you’ve got the cycle view you know, Ober is generally always.

start the bull market in earnest once we break out that top 73, 000. So that’s what I’m focused on in the year September. I think, you know, it’s kind of like we’ve had a lot of doom about it in terms of seasonality but with these macro catalysts I think we’re gonna be a good show towards the end of the month.

Now this I just want to leave you on, this is the head analyst, macro analyst, for Jim Iserell pulls our macro firm.  Now, he’s pointing out that the similarity between 2019, the 175 day consolidation from the peak when we made it in, I think it was 3, 000 to 14,  000 in 2019 then we went into an incredibly similar time based capitulation sideways back down to 8, 000, no actually it was about 7, 000 at the trough, almost 6, 000.

We’ve done essentially the exact same thing here in 2024.  And you know, according to this, we’ve found the low, the breaker. And time wise, in terms of the cycle, that makes a ton of sense. Now, the caveat here is in 2019 and 2020, then we went on to do the COVID crash. But again, that was, that’s a little bit more, almost behind us now in terms of cycle wise.

And also COVID was a black swan. You just cannot see them. I mean, we have the Japanese yen carry trade you know, the last couple of weeks, if that happens again and gets worse, yeah, we could have a you know, another dip, and that could go to the 45, 000. I think that is it. Again, unless we have a global, or World War III, or, or, or something else pop out of nowhere, which you just cannot foresee.

And if we get a big dip like that, that is when you want to have liquidity on the sidelines, capital ready to go to make use of that dip. So guys, this has been a little bit longer, I wanted to share a little bit more with you, but just, just look at where we are. Don’t get too upset. This is the point where you are expected  to pack up your toys and go home.

You’re not meant to stay in this market anymore. You know, survive and thrive. It’s so, so important to recognize that this is a marathon, not a sprint, and you would have felt that after 15, 000 to 73, 000 at new all time high. It’s a marathon. That actually was exceeding expectations, and so You know, we, we really need to think that the consolidation had to come, had to be real and you had to make you start to question your investment thesis and also whether the cycle is over there or what all good corrections do.

So, again, it’s all psychology. Master that, you will master this next phase, which I think we are moving towards. very clearly into a bull market. We’ve just been in a bear market low recovery phase. We have not entered the bull market in earnest yet. That comes, so just remember that.  And everyone, I hope you are still here, still paying attention and you’re ready to go because you’re taking the eyes off the prize at the last minute.

So guys, I hope you appreciate this and catch you again for our next episode, which will be all combined on Wednesday. See you. Bye bye.